Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Hyperliquid has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.71% and 42.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -13.2% to -6.6% | 7 |
| -6.6% to -0.1% | 4 |
| -0.1% to +6.5% | 3 |
| +6.5% to +13.1% | 2 |
| +13.1% to +19.6% | 1 |
| +19.6% to +26.2% | 1 |
| +26.2% to +32.8% | 0 |
| +32.8% to +39.4% | 0 |
| +39.4% to +45.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.23% | 0.09% | 36.8% | 10.65% | -9.97% |
| 3 days | 19 | 4.01% | 1.84% | 52.6% | 16.37% | -15.46% |
| 7 days | 19 | -0.71% | 2.12% | 42.1% | 45.94% | -13.22% |
| 14 days | 19 | 0.84% | 2.32% | 52.6% | 54.19% | -19.72% |
| 30 days | 18 | 3.83% | 1.72% | 55.6% | 43.48% | -36.22% |
| 90 days | 18 | 29.23% | 29.01% | 66.7% | 108.68% | -37.92% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $76.92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $80.92 | +3.06% | +4.01% | +4.34% | -1.83% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $59.71 | -5.22% | +6.81% | -0.71% | +17.70% | +19.36% | +46.45% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $73.50 | -5.12% | -12.43% | -13.22% | -9.00% | -15.16% | +8.91% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $40.87 | +8.68% | +9.34% | -0.64% | +4.01% | -1.53% | +63.50% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $39.18 | -1.43% | -3.48% | -10.05% | +0.84% | +5.93% | +62.92% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $42.08 | -6.59% | -7.56% | -4.16% | -14.39% | +6.05% | +74.82% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $31.07 | -2.21% | +11.54% | +17.38% | +27.42% | +19.10% | +107.14% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $28.11 | -5.90% | -0.72% | +12.46% | +9.56% | +43.48% | +108.68% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $32.52 | +8.95% | -0.39% | -11.31% | -9.04% | -5.92% | +28.50% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $31.01 | -1.23% | +4.87% | +1.50% | +2.80% | +5.98% | +32.65% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $30.74 | -0.53% | -0.36% | +7.38% | +1.34% | +1.74% | +29.96% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $21.09 | +2.51% | +7.66% | +45.94% | +54.19% | +37.86% | +93.05% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $30.98 | -0.12% | -4.88% | -7.67% | -19.72% | -13.81% | -1.25% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $31.09 | +8.96% | +7.98% | -5.19% | -11.28% | -18.16% | +1.71% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $37.61 | -9.97% | -15.46% | -7.68% | -10.76% | -36.22% | -23.73% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $37.50 | +2.82% | +4.07% | -9.71% | -6.95% | -23.00% | -16.93% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $40.11 | -2.43% | -3.90% | +3.56% | -2.70% | -13.50% | -23.64% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $38.12 | -3.20% | +11.42% | -6.95% | +3.17% | +9.47% | -32.65% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $40.53 | +10.65% | +16.37% | +24.98% | +8.69% | +9.24% | -37.92% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-21: +45.94%
- 2025-09-26: +24.98%
- 2026-03-07: +17.38%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -13.22%
- 2026-02-04: -11.31%
- 2026-03-27: -10.05%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.