Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Hyperliquid has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.46% and 45.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -18.4% to -14.3% | 2 |
| -14.3% to -10.2% | 0 |
| -10.2% to -6.2% | 3 |
| -6.2% to -2.1% | 4 |
| -2.1% to +2.0% | 2 |
| +2.0% to +6.0% | 2 |
| +6.0% to +10.1% | 1 |
| +10.1% to +14.2% | 2 |
| +14.2% to +18.2% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 0.64% | 0.86% | 60.0% | 7.93% | -5.04% |
| 3 days | 20 | -1.14% | -0.04% | 40.0% | 14.20% | -10.66% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.46% | 1.39% | 45.0% | 18.24% | -18.38% |
| 14 days | 19 | 2.61% | 3.39% | 52.6% | 30.58% | -20.94% |
| 30 days | 18 | 9.65% | 3.28% | 55.6% | 38.34% | -28.78% |
| 90 days | 17 | 51.54% | 47.49% | 76.5% | 119.17% | -45.01% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $87.45 | -3.46% | +0.57% | -10.17% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $69.60 | +5.82% | +14.20% | +18.24% | +17.69% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $65.48 | +2.06% | -8.77% | -7.10% | -15.80% | -12.27% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $58.91 | +0.65% | +8.45% | +15.89% | +8.77% | +13.42% | +41.86% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $59.61 | +6.99% | -10.66% | +7.17% | +12.32% | +16.07% | +43.27% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $44.41 | -1.84% | -1.22% | -8.31% | -6.22% | -12.60% | +51.54% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $38.76 | -0.11% | +7.33% | +12.48% | +2.61% | +9.71% | +82.08% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $37.37 | +7.93% | +4.82% | -1.45% | -2.88% | +10.13% | +79.16% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $34.66 | +0.09% | +7.47% | +17.63% | +7.83% | +11.70% | +72.00% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $32.22 | -5.04% | -5.70% | +12.50% | +30.58% | +10.49% | +116.41% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $32.87 | -4.67% | -6.90% | +5.46% | +24.05% | +9.60% | +119.17% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $27.91 | +1.04% | +12.05% | +15.44% | +29.87% | +38.34% | +113.13% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $31.61 | +0.84% | -1.05% | -3.82% | -13.32% | +18.50% | +39.69% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $32.40 | -2.84% | -3.22% | -2.42% | -6.14% | -4.92% | +31.25% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $25.84 | +0.63% | -2.80% | -18.38% | +19.12% | +20.55% | +71.87% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $24.87 | -3.56% | -0.09% | +3.66% | -1.16% | -1.94% | +58.01% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $33.87 | +2.43% | -8.53% | -17.50% | -20.94% | -28.57% | -2.97% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $36.20 | -4.08% | -5.00% | -4.16% | -20.23% | -28.78% | -24.85% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $39.75 | +6.84% | -5.90% | -5.88% | +19.01% | -2.78% | -39.24% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $47.17 | +7.38% | +4.19% | -1.47% | -20.71% | -7.60% | -45.01% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +18.24%
- 2026-03-10: +17.63%
- 2026-06-12: +15.89%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -18.38%
- 2025-12-03: -17.50%
- 2026-09-04: -10.17%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.