Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Hyperliquid
20 historical signal(s) detected for Hyperliquid; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $40.5301 | $50.6559 | +24.98% | 124.98 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $38.1168 | $35.4686 | -6.95% | 116.30 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $40.1118 | $41.5397 | +3.56% | 120.44 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $37.5015 | $33.8616 | -9.71% | 108.75 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $31.0863 | $29.4728 | -5.19% | 103.11 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $21.0921 | $30.7818 | +45.94% | 150.47 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $30.7396 | $33.0075 | +7.38% | 161.57 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $28.1139 | $31.6166 | +12.46% | 181.70 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $31.0734 | $36.4742 | +17.38% | 213.29 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $42.0760 | $40.3247 | -4.16% | 204.41 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $39.1758 | $35.2393 | -10.05% | 183.87 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $40.8652 | $40.6048 | -0.64% | 182.70 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $73.4982 | $63.7809 | -13.22% | 158.54 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $80.9152 | $84.4271 | +4.34% | 165.42 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Hyperliquid · Read the full methodology