Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Hyperliquid has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.42% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -17.5% to -13.5% | 1 |
| -13.5% to -9.6% | 1 |
| -9.6% to -5.6% | 1 |
| -5.6% to -1.6% | 1 |
| -1.6% to +2.4% | 0 |
| +2.4% to +6.3% | 0 |
| +6.3% to +10.3% | 0 |
| +10.3% to +14.3% | 1 |
| +14.3% to +18.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -1.84% | -0.56% | 42.9% | 5.82% | -5.04% |
| 3 days | 7 | -1.22% | 1.17% | 42.9% | 14.20% | -8.53% |
| 7 days | 7 | -2.42% | 1.11% | 42.9% | 18.24% | -17.50% |
| 14 days | 6 | 5.77% | 7.47% | 50.0% | 30.58% | -20.94% |
| 30 days | 5 | -4.92% | 0.55% | 40.0% | 38.34% | -28.57% |
| 90 days | 5 | 51.54% | 61.87% | 80.0% | 116.41% | -2.97% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $87.45 | -3.46% | +0.57% | -10.17% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $69.60 | +5.82% | +14.20% | +18.24% | +17.69% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $44.41 | -1.84% | -1.22% | -8.31% | -6.22% | -12.60% | +51.54% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $32.22 | -5.04% | -5.70% | +12.50% | +30.58% | +10.49% | +116.41% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $27.91 | +1.04% | +12.05% | +15.44% | +29.87% | +38.34% | +113.13% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $32.40 | -2.84% | -3.22% | -2.42% | -6.14% | -4.92% | +31.25% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $33.87 | +2.43% | -8.53% | -17.50% | -20.94% | -28.57% | -2.97% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +18.24%
- 2026-02-26: +15.44%
- 2026-03-05: +12.50%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-12-03: -17.50%
- 2026-09-04: -10.17%
- 2026-04-14: -8.31%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.