Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Ethereum has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.83% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.3% to -6.6% | 2 |
| -6.6% to -3.8% | 3 |
| -3.8% to -1.0% | 3 |
| -1.0% to +1.7% | 4 |
| +1.7% to +4.5% | 2 |
| +4.5% to +7.2% | 2 |
| +7.2% to +10.0% | 2 |
| +10.0% to +12.8% | 0 |
| +12.8% to +15.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | 0.17% | 0.47% | 55.0% | 6.38% | -2.55% |
| 3 days | 20 | -0.40% | -0.33% | 50.0% | 7.62% | -6.73% |
| 7 days | 20 | 0.83% | 1.24% | 50.0% | 17.59% | -11.67% |
| 14 days | 19 | 0.16% | 0.76% | 52.6% | 15.51% | -9.32% |
| 30 days | 18 | -0.05% | -2.09% | 50.0% | 10.37% | -41.52% |
| 90 days | 17 | -19.56% | -9.45% | 29.4% | 47.59% | -38.80% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $2507.65 | -2.06% | +0.25% | -2.80% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $2251.73 | +3.32% | +7.62% | +11.31% | +6.18% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $1890.31 | +1.40% | -2.62% | +2.03% | +1.60% | -0.31% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $1671.87 | -0.38% | +3.20% | +2.29% | -6.33% | +6.94% | +47.59% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $1687.88 | +0.15% | -3.97% | +2.23% | +1.01% | +4.94% | +46.93% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $2374.02 | -2.00% | -1.05% | -2.50% | -2.95% | -4.87% | -23.95% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $2235.82 | -2.51% | +0.52% | +4.05% | +4.06% | +2.48% | -19.56% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $2152.47 | +0.18% | -4.32% | -5.97% | -2.40% | +10.37% | -20.79% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $1992.98 | +2.12% | +3.96% | +17.59% | +8.00% | +9.37% | -15.31% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $2127.58 | -2.55% | -6.73% | -3.56% | +3.55% | -5.55% | -12.65% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $2028.80 | -2.26% | +2.20% | -1.77% | +15.51% | +5.06% | -1.17% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $2053.10 | -1.25% | -4.21% | +3.63% | -0.06% | -3.00% | +0.94% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $2048.32 | +1.83% | -2.45% | -3.92% | -5.72% | +6.53% | +11.44% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $2055.77 | +1.57% | +2.48% | -0.36% | -4.27% | -5.66% | +11.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $3330.50 | +0.64% | -1.14% | -11.67% | -9.32% | -41.52% | -28.72% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $2977.66 | -0.01% | +0.93% | -1.72% | +5.29% | +10.08% | -28.15% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $2997.60 | +6.38% | +0.74% | +10.71% | -1.33% | +0.21% | -32.32% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $3026.42 | -0.38% | -1.22% | +5.37% | +9.81% | -3.30% | -38.80% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $4151.92 | +2.25% | -3.86% | -4.08% | +0.16% | -17.72% | -25.67% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $4354.38 | +2.98% | +3.09% | +3.94% | -8.33% | -11.65% | -31.84% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-10: +17.59%
- 2026-08-20: +11.31%
- 2025-12-03: +10.71%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -11.67%
- 2026-03-24: -5.97%
- 2025-10-13: -4.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.