Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Ethereum has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.56% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.4% to -29.8% | 1 |
| -29.8% to -24.2% | 0 |
| -24.2% to -18.6% | 0 |
| -18.6% to -13.0% | 2 |
| -13.0% to -7.3% | 2 |
| -7.3% to -1.7% | 0 |
| -1.7% to +3.9% | 9 |
| +3.9% to +9.5% | 3 |
| +9.5% to +15.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.44% | -1.13% | 42.1% | 8.44% | -8.75% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.45% | -0.66% | 52.6% | 12.07% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.56% | -1.76% | 52.6% | 15.10% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 19 | 2.45% | -2.48% | 52.6% | 12.12% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 18 | 2.72% | -2.93% | 55.6% | 14.31% | -33.73% |
| 90 days | 18 | -19.65% | -12.85% | 22.2% | 58.47% | -37.54% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $2397.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $2442.41 | +0.60% | +0.99% | +0.56% | +2.97% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $1582.46 | -0.87% | +6.83% | +5.25% | +7.99% | +12.75% | +58.47% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $2003.58 | -7.25% | -11.71% | -15.63% | -10.41% | -19.73% | +20.60% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $2189.22 | +8.44% | +7.83% | +3.42% | +8.22% | +3.95% | -18.33% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $2059.59 | -3.30% | -3.78% | -0.35% | +5.75% | +12.67% | -21.31% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $2203.13 | -2.89% | -6.22% | -1.39% | -3.25% | +9.90% | -18.69% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $1979.08 | +0.27% | +0.70% | +5.61% | +8.46% | +4.40% | -10.61% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $1886.45 | -1.44% | +8.83% | +2.83% | +2.81% | +14.31% | +12.19% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $2226.41 | -3.73% | -7.66% | -9.21% | -10.42% | -6.87% | +5.38% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $2941.88 | +1.44% | +0.45% | +2.66% | -24.32% | -33.73% | -21.32% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $3019.83 | +0.56% | +3.44% | +2.22% | -1.40% | +4.41% | -31.34% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $2796.73 | +7.18% | +12.07% | +11.69% | +5.98% | +6.20% | -30.64% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $2832.53 | -2.42% | -1.19% | +6.44% | +10.66% | +5.11% | -30.99% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $3118.71 | +1.63% | -2.97% | -11.38% | -2.80% | -1.77% | -37.54% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $3600.36 | -8.75% | -8.00% | -0.95% | -15.95% | -11.43% | -37.11% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $3896.06 | +3.41% | +6.25% | +15.10% | +12.12% | +1.49% | -24.40% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +15.10%
- 2025-12-02: +11.69%
- 2025-11-21: +6.44%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-06-02: -15.63%
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.