Transparent historical data
What Happens to Ethereum When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Ethereum has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.00% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.4% to -30.7% | 1 |
| -30.7% to -26.0% | 0 |
| -26.0% to -21.3% | 0 |
| -21.3% to -16.6% | 0 |
| -16.6% to -11.9% | 1 |
| -11.9% to -7.3% | 1 |
| -7.3% to -2.6% | 0 |
| -2.6% to +2.1% | 1 |
| +2.1% to +6.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -2.48% | -1.09% | 16.7% | 12.72% | -7.60% |
| 3 days | 6 | -5.17% | -3.29% | 33.3% | 14.73% | -19.78% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.00% | -8.16% | 33.3% | 6.80% | -35.39% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.57% | -4.91% | 50.0% | 10.66% | -30.99% |
| 30 days | 6 | -7.72% | -8.18% | 33.3% | 8.81% | -30.32% |
| 90 days | 6 | -12.74% | -2.50% | 33.3% | 32.73% | -30.99% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $1858.36 | -2.51% | -14.85% | -11.82% | -3.60% | -8.60% | +32.73% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $1823.81 | +12.72% | +14.73% | +6.80% | +6.90% | +8.81% | +28.91% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $2450.66 | -7.60% | -9.15% | -14.80% | -14.89% | -17.21% | -6.33% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $2822.63 | -4.24% | -19.78% | -35.39% | -30.99% | -30.32% | -20.16% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $2832.53 | -2.42% | -1.19% | +6.44% | +10.66% | +5.11% | -30.99% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $3841.67 | -2.45% | +10.51% | -0.17% | +2.45% | -6.84% | -19.15% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +6.80%
- 2025-11-21: +6.44%
- 2025-10-11: -0.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -35.39%
- 2026-02-01: -14.80%
- 2026-06-03: -11.82%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.