Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Ethereum
20 historical signal(s) detected for Ethereum; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $4354.3788 | $4526.0621 | +3.94% | 103.94 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $4151.9189 | $3982.3559 | -4.08% | 99.70 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $3026.4215 | $3188.8819 | +5.37% | 105.05 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $2977.6645 | $2926.4702 | -1.72% | 103.24 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $3330.5044 | $2941.8833 | -11.67% | 91.20 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $2055.7744 | $2048.3188 | -0.36% | 90.87 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $2048.3188 | $1967.9284 | -3.92% | 87.30 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $2053.0977 | $2127.5792 | +3.63% | 90.47 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $2127.5792 | $2051.9341 | -3.56% | 87.25 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $2152.4713 | $2024.0146 | -5.97% | 82.04 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $2235.8222 | $2326.4452 | +4.05% | 85.37 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1687.8827 | $1725.4489 | +2.23% | 87.27 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $1890.3094 | $1928.6559 | +2.03% | 89.04 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $2251.7346 | $2506.3431 | +11.31% | 99.11 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $2507.6483 | $2437.5148 | -2.80% | 96.33 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Ethereum · Read the full methodology