Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
TRON has recorded 50 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.56% and 56.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.5% to -7.8% | 1 |
| -7.8% to -6.2% | 3 |
| -6.2% to -4.5% | 2 |
| -4.5% to -2.9% | 4 |
| -2.9% to -1.2% | 6 |
| -1.2% to +0.4% | 7 |
| +0.4% to +2.1% | 13 |
| +2.1% to +3.7% | 10 |
| +3.7% to +5.4% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 50 | -0.14% | -0.27% | 40.0% | 2.68% | -4.78% |
| 3 days | 50 | 0.40% | 0.10% | 62.0% | 4.76% | -5.42% |
| 7 days | 50 | 0.56% | -0.21% | 56.0% | 5.39% | -9.46% |
| 14 days | 50 | 0.64% | -0.04% | 58.0% | 8.83% | -12.72% |
| 30 days | 48 | 1.89% | 0.84% | 56.2% | 15.55% | -16.08% |
| 90 days | 39 | 3.97% | 3.55% | 59.0% | 29.66% | -19.59% |
Historical occurrences
50 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | -0.04 | $0.34 | -1.06% | -3.26% | -0.24% | +0.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | -0.01 | $0.33 | +0.50% | +3.21% | +1.07% | -3.14% | — | — |
| 2026-08-05 | -0.00 | $0.33 | +0.02% | +0.11% | +2.39% | +1.71% | +1.13% | — |
| 2026-08-03 | -0.02 | $0.33 | +0.64% | +0.20% | +0.97% | +1.38% | -1.31% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $0.32 | -0.12% | +1.11% | +1.14% | +1.75% | +3.44% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.01% | +0.63% | +1.65% | -0.07% | +1.82% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -0.05 | $0.32 | +0.47% | -0.35% | +0.76% | +0.21% | +3.62% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -0.00 | $0.33 | +1.14% | +0.43% | -1.19% | +0.16% | -0.25% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | -0.03 | $0.32 | -1.86% | -1.16% | +2.64% | +0.99% | +1.38% | — |
| 2026-06-26 | -0.00 | $0.32 | -1.02% | -0.52% | -1.93% | +2.61% | +2.41% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -1.42% | -3.04% | -3.80% | -1.26% | -1.47% | — |
| 2026-06-02 | -0.05 | $0.34 | -3.19% | -3.22% | -4.86% | -7.30% | -8.02% | -2.13% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.01 | $0.37 | -4.11% | -5.42% | -9.46% | -12.72% | -12.90% | -8.55% |
| 2026-04-24 | -0.00 | $0.33 | -1.67% | -1.61% | -0.69% | +6.11% | +10.27% | -0.03% |
| 2026-04-16 | -0.00 | $0.33 | -0.05% | +0.72% | +0.77% | -1.25% | +7.60% | -0.44% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.00 | $0.32 | -0.25% | +1.83% | +2.45% | +0.72% | +8.62% | +2.61% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $0.32 | -0.09% | +0.37% | +2.67% | +1.28% | +9.81% | +3.97% |
| 2026-04-06 | -0.00 | $0.33 | -0.51% | +0.77% | -1.89% | +0.51% | +5.27% | -0.73% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.00 | $0.31 | -1.05% | +1.26% | +3.51% | +5.38% | +7.16% | +5.05% |
| 2026-03-16 | -0.00 | $0.30 | -1.06% | +1.96% | +4.07% | +7.73% | +8.47% | +6.19% |
| 2026-03-13 | -0.01 | $0.29 | +1.52% | +3.28% | +4.99% | +7.74% | +10.35% | +11.01% |
| 2026-03-10 | -0.01 | $0.29 | +0.04% | +1.23% | +3.45% | +7.67% | +15.55% | +14.39% |
| 2026-03-07 | -0.04 | $0.28 | +0.76% | +0.35% | +3.13% | +8.83% | +15.07% | +16.75% |
| 2026-02-28 | -0.01 | $0.28 | -0.34% | +0.12% | +0.56% | +3.70% | +13.66% | +24.58% |
| 2026-02-24 | -0.02 | $0.28 | +0.84% | +1.44% | +0.57% | +1.36% | +11.69% | +29.66% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +5.39%
- 2026-03-13: +4.99%
- 2026-01-01: +4.83%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: -9.46%
- 2025-10-24: -6.79%
- 2025-10-08: -6.23%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.