Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
TRON has recorded 58 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.22% and 46.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.5% to -7.7% | 3 |
| -7.7% to -6.0% | 5 |
| -6.0% to -4.3% | 3 |
| -4.3% to -2.6% | 5 |
| -2.6% to -0.9% | 10 |
| -0.9% to +0.8% | 9 |
| +0.8% to +2.6% | 12 |
| +2.6% to +4.3% | 8 |
| +4.3% to +6.0% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 59 | -0.25% | -0.51% | 28.8% | 3.92% | -4.78% |
| 3 days | 58 | 0.05% | -0.48% | 50.0% | 3.28% | -7.83% |
| 7 days | 58 | -0.22% | -0.73% | 46.6% | 5.99% | -9.46% |
| 14 days | 58 | -0.12% | -0.45% | 48.3% | 8.84% | -12.86% |
| 30 days | 56 | 1.10% | -0.18% | 55.4% | 15.07% | -16.08% |
| 90 days | 47 | 3.85% | 4.02% | 55.3% | 28.65% | -22.24% |
Historical occurrences
59 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | -0.01 | $0.34 | -0.06% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -0.01 | $0.34 | -1.06% | -3.26% | -0.24% | +0.69% | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -0.01 | $0.34 | -0.05% | +1.56% | -4.17% | +0.78% | — | — |
| 2026-08-17 | -0.02 | $0.33 | +0.01% | +1.01% | +3.94% | +1.50% | +0.56% | — |
| 2026-08-05 | -0.02 | $0.33 | +0.02% | +0.11% | +2.39% | +1.71% | +1.13% | — |
| 2026-08-02 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.36% | -0.18% | +0.36% | +1.00% | +1.45% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $0.32 | -0.12% | +1.11% | +1.14% | +1.75% | +3.44% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | -0.02 | $0.33 | -2.16% | -2.11% | -1.40% | +0.23% | +1.07% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.18% | -1.83% | -2.32% | +0.12% | -0.18% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.97% | -0.37% | -1.73% | -0.61% | -1.38% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | -0.03 | $0.32 | -1.86% | -1.16% | +2.64% | +0.99% | +1.38% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.02 | $0.33 | -1.42% | -3.04% | -3.80% | -1.26% | -1.47% | — |
| 2026-06-01 | -0.02 | $0.35 | -2.21% | -5.18% | -6.95% | -8.42% | -10.26% | -2.92% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.01 | $0.37 | -4.11% | -5.42% | -9.46% | -12.72% | -12.90% | -8.55% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $0.33 | -0.25% | -1.71% | -2.00% | +5.02% | +9.77% | -0.07% |
| 2026-04-17 | -0.01 | $0.33 | +0.26% | +0.65% | +0.57% | -0.12% | +8.57% | -0.81% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.01 | $0.32 | -0.25% | +1.83% | +2.45% | +0.72% | +8.62% | +2.61% |
| 2026-04-06 | -0.02 | $0.33 | -0.51% | +0.77% | -1.89% | +0.51% | +5.27% | -0.73% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.01 | $0.32 | +0.74% | +1.13% | +2.27% | +0.99% | +1.91% | -2.48% |
| 2026-03-30 | -0.01 | $0.32 | -0.58% | +1.09% | +1.80% | -0.12% | +0.45% | -0.21% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $0.31 | -0.19% | +3.27% | +3.95% | +6.31% | +4.04% | +4.97% |
| 2026-03-25 | -0.02 | $0.31 | +2.78% | +1.54% | +2.29% | +6.35% | +7.42% | +8.99% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.02 | $0.31 | -1.05% | +1.26% | +3.51% | +5.38% | +7.16% | +5.05% |
| 2026-03-17 | -0.01 | $0.30 | +3.92% | +2.74% | +4.08% | +8.25% | +10.74% | +8.83% |
| 2026-03-13 | -0.01 | $0.29 | +1.52% | +3.28% | +4.99% | +7.74% | +10.35% | +11.01% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-09: +5.99%
- 2026-01-12: +5.99%
- 2026-03-13: +4.99%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-05-28: -9.46%
- 2026-01-30: -8.66%
- 2025-10-23: -8.15%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.