Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Sui has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.32% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.1% to -27.1% | 2 |
| -27.1% to -19.0% | 2 |
| -19.0% to -11.0% | 4 |
| -11.0% to -3.0% | 2 |
| -3.0% to +5.0% | 4 |
| +5.0% to +13.1% | 3 |
| +13.1% to +21.1% | 0 |
| +21.1% to +29.1% | 0 |
| +29.1% to +37.2% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.07% | -0.23% | 47.4% | 20.99% | -8.13% |
| 3 days | 19 | -2.31% | -0.21% | 47.4% | 23.30% | -16.13% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.32% | -2.80% | 52.6% | 19.72% | -32.85% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.35% | -5.45% | 36.8% | 10.90% | -29.04% |
| 30 days | 18 | -7.98% | -7.14% | 27.8% | 37.16% | -35.11% |
| 90 days | 18 | -29.21% | -25.89% | 11.1% | 16.60% | -54.84% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.74 | +0.18% | -2.31% | +1.58% | -2.45% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.70 | +2.10% | +7.41% | +6.81% | +1.89% | +7.58% | +11.45% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.88 | -8.13% | -12.76% | -14.05% | -9.73% | -18.63% | -19.06% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.90 | +6.56% | +6.53% | +2.40% | +4.87% | +37.16% | -19.21% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.95 | -7.53% | -11.00% | -9.43% | -2.27% | -1.38% | -28.09% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $1.01 | -1.55% | -2.69% | -0.51% | -12.49% | -0.95% | -21.02% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.93 | +0.13% | +4.18% | +9.06% | +4.26% | -5.31% | -17.46% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.91 | -0.07% | +8.64% | +0.51% | +0.94% | +6.89% | +16.60% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $1.13 | -2.53% | -9.40% | -17.69% | -11.65% | -13.38% | -17.88% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $1.17 | -3.83% | -3.32% | -12.42% | -9.88% | -19.44% | -21.47% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $1.34 | -3.65% | -16.13% | -32.85% | -29.04% | -30.82% | -32.38% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $1.49 | +2.31% | +1.62% | -2.12% | -24.25% | -35.11% | -36.73% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $1.56 | +0.60% | +3.61% | +0.32% | -4.77% | +9.14% | -36.99% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $1.35 | +20.99% | +23.30% | +19.72% | +9.19% | +4.32% | -31.80% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $1.50 | -7.09% | -8.70% | +3.14% | +10.90% | -2.81% | -35.80% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $1.74 | +1.42% | -7.21% | -20.17% | -12.60% | -10.66% | -45.33% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $2.07 | -4.40% | -4.91% | +4.60% | -21.87% | -17.97% | -45.59% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $2.61 | -2.55% | +14.63% | -6.55% | -3.35% | -17.97% | -30.34% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $3.13 | +2.77% | +4.59% | +14.47% | +8.81% | -19.14% | -54.84% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-02: +19.72%
- 2025-09-26: +14.47%
- 2026-03-07: +9.06%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -32.85%
- 2025-11-15: -20.17%
- 2026-02-04: -17.69%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.