Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Sui
20 historical signal(s) detected for Sui; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $3.1331 | $3.5866 | +14.47% | 114.47 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.6108 | $2.4397 | -6.55% | 106.97 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $2.0682 | $2.1634 | +4.60% | 111.89 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $1.7415 | $1.3902 | -20.17% | 89.32 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $1.3458 | $1.6112 | +19.72% | 106.94 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $1.4932 | $1.4615 | -2.12% | 104.67 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $1.3417 | $0.9010 | -32.85% | 70.29 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.9132 | $0.9178 | +0.51% | 70.65 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.9284 | $1.0125 | +9.06% | 77.05 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $1.0077 | $1.0025 | -0.51% | 76.65 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.9523 | $0.8625 | -9.43% | 69.43 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $0.9019 | $0.9235 | +2.40% | 71.09 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $0.8784 | $0.7549 | -14.05% | 61.10 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.7437 | $0.7554 | +1.58% | 62.07 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.