Transparent historical data
What Happens to Sui When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Sui has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.34% and 45.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -21.2% to -17.5% | 1 |
| -17.5% to -13.7% | 0 |
| -13.7% to -10.0% | 1 |
| -10.0% to -6.3% | 2 |
| -6.3% to -2.6% | 4 |
| -2.6% to +1.2% | 5 |
| +1.2% to +4.9% | 3 |
| +4.9% to +8.6% | 1 |
| +8.6% to +12.3% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.30% | 0.24% | 40.0% | 6.52% | -5.00% |
| 3 days | 20 | -2.31% | -0.11% | 40.0% | 15.52% | -6.43% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.34% | -1.20% | 45.0% | 12.35% | -21.21% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.97% | -3.88% | 31.6% | 15.28% | -23.92% |
| 30 days | 18 | -7.95% | -8.31% | 22.2% | 25.67% | -49.76% |
| 90 days | 17 | -22.12% | -21.06% | 23.5% | 19.35% | -59.35% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.78 | -3.56% | +3.61% | -7.15% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.71 | +3.95% | +15.52% | +8.75% | +5.71% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.76 | -0.94% | -2.92% | +1.23% | -9.17% | -9.59% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.75 | -0.43% | +6.46% | -3.32% | -9.39% | -3.37% | +2.42% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.76 | -0.30% | -4.04% | +6.01% | -8.49% | -3.86% | +4.98% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.96 | -2.74% | +4.09% | -1.69% | -2.61% | +25.67% | -23.44% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.96 | -5.00% | -1.89% | -2.86% | -1.32% | +0.70% | -22.12% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.98 | -0.29% | -2.72% | -11.87% | -10.85% | -3.46% | -29.22% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.97 | +1.94% | +5.10% | +12.35% | +1.22% | -5.50% | -21.71% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.98 | +0.43% | -4.72% | +0.36% | +3.28% | -10.35% | -17.29% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.94 | -0.91% | +3.95% | +2.61% | +15.28% | -6.44% | -5.09% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.99 | -2.33% | -6.43% | -1.66% | -1.30% | -11.24% | +0.79% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.99 | +6.04% | +2.94% | -1.03% | -6.82% | +6.30% | +19.35% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $1.02 | -0.01% | -5.96% | -2.98% | -3.97% | -10.06% | -5.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $1.90 | -1.74% | -4.72% | -21.21% | -22.88% | -49.76% | -49.29% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $1.48 | -1.80% | -1.39% | -5.68% | +8.81% | +11.77% | -33.01% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $1.63 | +4.19% | -4.49% | +1.87% | -7.20% | -9.48% | -42.11% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $1.54 | +0.04% | -2.79% | +9.98% | +4.67% | -9.45% | -41.93% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $2.81 | +6.52% | -4.56% | -8.14% | -4.75% | -28.49% | -35.55% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $3.52 | +1.75% | +2.83% | +0.33% | -23.92% | -32.96% | -59.35% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-10: +12.35%
- 2025-11-27: +9.98%
- 2026-08-20: +8.75%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -21.21%
- 2026-03-24: -11.87%
- 2025-10-13: -8.14%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.