Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.71% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.3% to -9.5% | 1 |
| -9.5% to -6.6% | 1 |
| -6.6% to -3.8% | 2 |
| -3.8% to -1.0% | 4 |
| -1.0% to +1.8% | 8 |
| +1.8% to +4.6% | 2 |
| +4.6% to +7.4% | 1 |
| +7.4% to +10.2% | 1 |
| +10.2% to +13.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 21 | 0.78% | -0.11% | 52.4% | 13.05% | -12.27% |
| 3 days | 21 | -2.25% | -2.82% | 38.1% | 9.91% | -16.99% |
| 7 days | 21 | -3.71% | -3.71% | 33.3% | 16.23% | -18.95% |
| 14 days | 21 | -6.45% | -7.27% | 19.0% | 7.99% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 20 | -13.90% | -12.66% | 10.0% | 15.35% | -30.56% |
| 90 days | 16 | -28.03% | -24.22% | 12.5% | 1.13% | -43.20% |
Historical occurrences
22 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -8.15 | $0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-26 | -5.75 | $0.18 | +1.61% | -1.64% | -3.71% | +2.89% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.77 | $0.17 | +1.27% | +0.05% | -0.37% | -6.11% | +7.91% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.62 | $0.19 | -4.02% | +0.95% | -2.28% | +1.75% | -14.56% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -5.01 | $0.19 | -3.41% | -6.25% | +6.34% | -2.19% | -3.98% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -6.99 | $0.22 | -0.91% | -7.13% | -18.59% | -6.45% | -13.76% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -5.05 | $0.19 | -4.99% | -2.25% | +12.59% | +1.40% | -3.14% | +0.66% |
| 2026-06-02 | -6.64 | $0.24 | -8.47% | -16.99% | -16.57% | -12.07% | -18.86% | -28.04% |
| 2026-05-31 | -11.51 | $0.23 | +13.05% | -3.40% | -7.63% | -18.68% | -24.10% | -21.93% |
| 2026-02-23 | -6.36 | $0.15 | +0.78% | +7.86% | +2.40% | -1.70% | +15.35% | -2.00% |
| 2026-02-08 | -9.33 | $0.16 | -0.10% | -1.75% | +7.80% | -0.45% | -6.78% | +1.13% |
| 2026-02-01 | -5.29 | $0.20 | -12.27% | -10.72% | -18.95% | -12.63% | -22.05% | -20.05% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.29 | $0.20 | +5.82% | -12.07% | -17.18% | -21.36% | -19.84% | -17.28% |
| 2026-01-19 | -7.63 | $0.21 | +1.28% | +0.12% | -4.37% | -17.74% | -21.93% | -19.90% |
| 2026-01-15 | -6.19 | $0.24 | -3.67% | -2.77% | -10.09% | -11.29% | -30.56% | -34.63% |
| 2025-12-02 | -5.80 | $0.23 | +8.86% | +7.70% | +2.91% | -5.76% | -14.04% | -34.00% |
| 2025-11-12 | -6.26 | $0.28 | -1.46% | -7.86% | -9.11% | -10.47% | -12.62% | -43.20% |
| 2025-11-04 | -8.78 | $0.28 | -2.95% | -3.12% | +7.98% | -11.28% | -7.09% | -37.04% |
| 2025-10-31 | -5.52 | $0.30 | +2.17% | +2.18% | -9.70% | -10.14% | -14.84% | -29.54% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.72 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +9.91% | -3.52% | -0.15% | -10.91% | -28.02% |
| 2025-10-08 | -6.30 | $0.38 | +1.12% | -16.72% | -12.14% | -18.17% | -29.86% | -34.04% |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.30 | $0.35 | +2.91% | +4.60% | +16.23% | +7.99% | -7.58% | -39.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.23%
- 2026-06-10: +12.59%
- 2025-11-04: +7.98%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -18.95%
- 2026-06-20: -18.59%
- 2026-01-30: -17.18%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.