Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Stellar
22 historical signal(s) detected for Stellar; 16 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.3515 | $0.4085 | +16.23% | 116.23 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $0.3842 | $0.3375 | -12.14% | 102.12 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $0.2984 | $0.2695 | -9.70% | 92.21 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $0.2815 | $0.2559 | -9.11% | 83.81 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.2340 | $0.2408 | +2.91% | 86.25 |
| 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-22 | $0.2370 | $0.2131 | -10.09% | 77.55 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1992 | $0.1649 | -17.18% | 64.23 |
| 2026-02-08 | 2026-02-15 | $0.1618 | $0.1744 | +7.80% | 69.23 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.1508 | $0.1544 | +2.40% | 70.90 |
| 2026-05-31 | 2026-06-07 | $0.2299 | $0.2124 | -7.63% | 65.49 |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-17 | $0.1923 | $0.2165 | +12.59% | 73.73 |
| 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-27 | $0.2180 | $0.1775 | -18.59% | 60.02 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $0.1887 | $0.1844 | -2.28% | 58.65 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-08-04 | $0.1718 | $0.1712 | -0.37% | 58.44 |
| 2026-08-26 | 2026-09-02 | $0.1825 | $0.1757 | -3.71% | 56.27 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.