Transparent historical data
What Happens to Stellar After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Stellar has recorded 51 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -4.01% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -19.0% to -15.0% | 5 |
| -15.0% to -11.1% | 5 |
| -11.1% to -7.2% | 11 |
| -7.2% to -3.3% | 6 |
| -3.3% to +0.6% | 11 |
| +0.6% to +4.5% | 7 |
| +4.5% to +8.5% | 3 |
| +8.5% to +12.4% | 0 |
| +12.4% to +16.3% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 52 | -0.29% | -0.41% | 44.2% | 13.05% | -12.27% |
| 3 days | 52 | -2.00% | -2.31% | 38.5% | 10.33% | -16.99% |
| 7 days | 51 | -4.01% | -3.94% | 33.3% | 16.30% | -18.95% |
| 14 days | 51 | -5.74% | -3.98% | 25.5% | 68.11% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 48 | -11.09% | -8.47% | 25.0% | 45.11% | -32.25% |
| 90 days | 43 | -27.43% | -18.71% | 20.9% | 48.89% | -44.15% |
Historical occurrences
53 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -8.15 | $0.18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -3.52 | $0.18 | -3.57% | -0.66% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.25 | $0.18 | +0.08% | -1.26% | +0.00% | -0.70% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | -3.02 | $0.19 | -5.75% | -3.18% | -8.46% | -0.04% | — | — |
| 2026-08-23 | -3.07 | $0.20 | +2.06% | -6.71% | -8.16% | -5.96% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -5.77 | $0.17 | +1.27% | +0.05% | -0.37% | -6.11% | +7.91% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -3.09 | $0.18 | +2.10% | +2.41% | +4.29% | -4.86% | -11.76% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -5.62 | $0.19 | -4.02% | +0.95% | -2.28% | +1.75% | -14.56% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -3.47 | $0.20 | -3.71% | -11.66% | -13.80% | -1.25% | -7.44% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -6.99 | $0.22 | -0.91% | -7.13% | -18.59% | -6.45% | -13.76% | — |
| 2026-06-10 | -5.05 | $0.19 | -4.99% | -2.25% | +12.59% | +1.40% | -3.14% | +0.66% |
| 2026-06-08 | -3.15 | $0.21 | -1.56% | -11.19% | -7.20% | +1.97% | -8.26% | -10.57% |
| 2026-06-02 | -6.64 | $0.24 | -8.47% | -16.99% | -16.57% | -12.07% | -18.86% | -28.04% |
| 2026-05-31 | -11.51 | $0.23 | +13.05% | -3.40% | -7.63% | -18.68% | -24.10% | -21.93% |
| 2026-05-16 | -4.64 | $0.15 | -1.83% | -4.84% | -7.27% | +68.11% | +23.50% | +3.13% |
| 2026-05-13 | -3.62 | $0.16 | -2.10% | -4.77% | -11.66% | -9.15% | +18.02% | -0.60% |
| 2026-05-01 | -3.82 | $0.16 | +0.71% | -0.33% | -0.13% | +2.29% | +45.11% | +8.43% |
| 2026-04-09 | -3.68 | $0.16 | -1.61% | -2.50% | +0.28% | +12.13% | +3.85% | +19.79% |
| 2026-04-07 | -4.65 | $0.16 | +4.92% | -0.56% | +0.28% | +11.53% | +3.79% | +30.38% |
| 2026-04-03 | -3.48 | $0.16 | -0.31% | +0.06% | -5.13% | +3.63% | -2.12% | +20.53% |
| 2026-03-28 | -3.86 | $0.17 | +0.59% | +0.19% | -2.56% | -7.19% | +2.24% | +7.01% |
| 2026-03-02 | -3.27 | $0.15 | +0.75% | +3.34% | -4.01% | +9.68% | +8.13% | +48.89% |
| 2026-02-23 | -6.36 | $0.15 | +0.78% | +7.86% | +2.40% | -1.70% | +15.35% | -2.00% |
| 2026-02-08 | -9.33 | $0.16 | -0.10% | -1.75% | +7.80% | -0.45% | -6.78% | +1.13% |
| 2026-02-05 | -3.93 | $0.17 | -3.66% | -5.50% | -9.41% | -5.71% | -11.06% | -6.64% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +16.30%
- 2025-09-26: +16.23%
- 2026-06-10: +12.59%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -18.95%
- 2026-06-20: -18.59%
- 2025-10-05: -17.95%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.