Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Solana has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -7.60% and 36.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.3% to -28.0% | 1 |
| -28.0% to -22.7% | 2 |
| -22.7% to -17.5% | 2 |
| -17.5% to -12.2% | 3 |
| -12.2% to -6.9% | 2 |
| -6.9% to -1.6% | 2 |
| -1.6% to +3.7% | 3 |
| +3.7% to +9.0% | 2 |
| +9.0% to +14.2% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -1.54% | -0.88% | 26.3% | 9.47% | -6.44% |
| 3 days | 19 | -5.16% | -2.97% | 36.8% | 11.85% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 19 | -7.60% | -5.49% | 36.8% | 21.39% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 19 | -9.88% | -8.66% | 31.6% | 14.24% | -33.30% |
| 30 days | 19 | -11.76% | -10.72% | 21.1% | 28.10% | -37.02% |
| 90 days | 19 | -29.56% | -20.77% | 15.8% | 63.37% | -44.98% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -5.50 | $96.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -7.52 | $63.63 | -2.28% | +4.98% | +4.94% | +9.50% | +28.10% | +63.37% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.65 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.70 | $86.56 | -4.11% | -5.98% | -8.68% | -3.76% | -0.42% | -21.50% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.03 | $90.12 | -1.08% | -3.52% | +1.87% | -9.88% | -1.43% | -18.48% |
| 2026-02-23 | -7.85 | $78.75 | -0.61% | +11.85% | +6.34% | +3.98% | +15.50% | +8.79% |
| 2026-02-04 | -6.48 | $97.63 | -5.71% | -10.91% | -15.01% | -12.59% | -8.89% | -13.88% |
| 2026-02-01 | -10.20 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.97 | $117.88 | -0.34% | -14.42% | -33.49% | -33.30% | -28.17% | -29.56% |
| 2026-01-26 | -6.85 | $118.66 | +4.66% | +5.65% | -14.98% | -26.48% | -33.29% | -27.36% |
| 2026-01-21 | -5.48 | $126.11 | +2.87% | +1.07% | +0.87% | -22.58% | -34.46% | -32.36% |
| 2026-01-19 | -5.69 | $135.50 | -1.54% | -4.26% | -12.43% | -25.55% | -37.02% | -36.41% |
| 2025-12-02 | -5.34 | $126.67 | +9.47% | +9.74% | +5.17% | +0.82% | -1.70% | -33.89% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.65 | $144.60 | -3.88% | -5.16% | -7.60% | -2.60% | -7.91% | -44.98% |
| 2025-11-12 | -7.60 | $154.66 | -0.90% | -10.13% | -9.08% | -10.17% | -11.76% | -43.87% |
| 2025-11-04 | -11.61 | $165.89 | -6.44% | -6.53% | +0.90% | -21.15% | -12.69% | -39.19% |
| 2025-10-11 | -14.56 | $188.79 | -5.72% | +10.49% | -3.52% | +2.51% | -12.91% | -26.70% |
| 2025-10-08 | -5.26 | $220.39 | +3.95% | -14.34% | -8.08% | -15.73% | -29.64% | -37.38% |
| 2025-09-26 | -8.61 | $193.41 | +5.90% | +8.96% | +21.39% | +14.24% | +0.27% | -36.68% |
| 2025-09-23 | -6.76 | $220.46 | -3.07% | -12.27% | -3.42% | +5.52% | -18.31% | -42.83% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +21.39%
- 2026-02-23: +6.34%
- 2025-12-02: +5.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2026-02-04: -15.01%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.