Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After a 3% One-Day Drop?
This study currently has no completed 7-day observations in the locally stored Solana dataset.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.5% to -27.4% | 1 |
| -27.4% to -21.3% | 0 |
| -21.3% to -15.2% | 3 |
| -15.2% to -9.1% | 6 |
| -9.1% to -3.0% | 10 |
| -3.0% to +3.1% | 14 |
| +3.1% to +9.2% | 12 |
| +9.2% to +15.3% | 0 |
| +15.3% to +21.4% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
48 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -5.50 | $96.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -3.70 | $101.68 | +1.31% | -1.27% | +4.73% | -2.32% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.64 | $104.11 | +1.42% | -1.06% | -2.10% | -1.65% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -3.32 | $74.14 | -0.50% | +0.43% | -0.88% | +2.40% | +37.64% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -3.47 | $77.79 | +0.26% | -1.38% | -0.71% | +0.19% | -5.36% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -3.12 | $69.61 | -2.38% | +3.17% | +5.68% | +15.77% | +8.97% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -3.24 | $69.65 | +0.04% | +3.98% | -2.90% | +15.75% | +8.37% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.65 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.28 | $84.31 | +1.61% | +0.79% | -2.77% | -24.53% | -14.10% | +3.96% |
| 2026-05-16 | -3.17 | $89.20 | -3.01% | -4.35% | -5.48% | -8.10% | -20.16% | -14.57% |
| 2026-05-13 | -3.05 | $94.29 | -3.36% | -5.39% | -10.71% | -11.26% | -29.13% | -19.47% |
| 2026-04-20 | -3.08 | $83.51 | +2.14% | +4.10% | +4.11% | +0.40% | +0.82% | -9.61% |
| 2026-04-15 | -3.25 | $83.82 | +1.36% | +5.98% | +2.65% | +0.27% | +9.90% | -10.60% |
| 2026-04-13 | -4.06 | $81.49 | +6.32% | +4.26% | +2.48% | +6.69% | +15.71% | -5.86% |
| 2026-04-09 | -3.74 | $82.53 | +0.94% | +2.91% | +2.95% | +5.34% | +11.48% | -2.35% |
| 2026-03-27 | -5.70 | $86.56 | -4.11% | -5.98% | -8.68% | -3.76% | -0.42% | -21.50% |
| 2026-03-22 | -3.27 | $86.94 | -0.50% | +4.62% | -5.56% | -6.94% | -1.89% | -19.86% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.03 | $90.12 | -1.08% | -3.52% | +1.87% | -9.88% | -1.43% | -18.48% |
| 2026-03-07 | -4.74 | $84.73 | -1.31% | +0.34% | +4.02% | +6.08% | -2.59% | -18.79% |
| 2026-02-28 | -4.69 | $82.04 | +3.21% | +5.74% | +3.28% | +7.42% | -0.80% | -0.00% |
| 2026-02-23 | -7.85 | $78.75 | -0.61% | +11.85% | +6.34% | +3.98% | +15.50% | +8.79% |
| 2026-02-19 | -4.20 | $81.76 | +1.09% | +4.52% | +7.73% | +11.39% | +9.94% | +2.98% |
| 2026-02-11 | -4.41 | $82.98 | -4.12% | +1.78% | +2.85% | -4.61% | +4.74% | +17.20% |
| 2026-02-04 | -6.48 | $97.63 | -5.71% | -10.91% | -15.01% | -12.59% | -8.89% | -13.88% |
| 2026-02-01 | -10.20 | $105.49 | -4.37% | -7.45% | -17.01% | -16.43% | -17.77% | -20.62% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +21.39%
- 2025-10-23: +7.77%
- 2026-02-19: +7.73%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2026-02-01: -17.01%
- 2025-10-10: -16.42%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.