Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Solana
20 historical signal(s) detected for Solana; 13 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (7 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $220.4557 | $212.9237 | -3.42% | 96.58 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $220.3896 | $202.5850 | -8.08% | 88.78 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $165.8882 | $167.3829 | +0.90% | 89.58 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $154.6564 | $140.6209 | -9.08% | 81.45 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $126.6739 | $133.2287 | +5.17% | 85.67 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $135.5033 | $118.6620 | -12.43% | 75.02 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $118.6620 | $100.8811 | -14.98% | 63.78 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2026-02-11 | $97.6309 | $82.9768 | -15.01% | 54.20 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $78.7499 | $83.7399 | +6.34% | 57.64 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $90.1155 | $91.7964 | +1.87% | 58.71 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $86.5600 | $79.0495 | -8.68% | 53.62 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $74.1390 | $64.9238 | -12.43% | 46.96 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.