Transparent historical data
What Happens to Solana After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Solana has recorded 57 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.30% and 38.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -38.1% to -29.2% | 5 |
| -29.2% to -20.3% | 8 |
| -20.3% to -11.4% | 8 |
| -11.4% to -2.5% | 10 |
| -2.5% to +6.4% | 10 |
| +6.4% to +15.3% | 7 |
| +15.3% to +24.2% | 2 |
| +24.2% to +33.1% | 0 |
| +33.1% to +42.0% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 59 | -0.82% | -1.24% | 32.2% | 6.29% | -8.61% |
| 3 days | 58 | -1.39% | -1.15% | 44.8% | 10.81% | -14.42% |
| 7 days | 57 | -2.30% | -1.88% | 38.6% | 24.71% | -33.49% |
| 14 days | 56 | -3.70% | -4.23% | 35.7% | 40.27% | -38.99% |
| 30 days | 53 | -6.10% | -6.52% | 30.2% | 42.04% | -38.08% |
| 90 days | 46 | -24.53% | -18.53% | 15.2% | 63.59% | -49.89% |
Historical occurrences
60 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -0.00 | $96.87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-14 | -0.00 | $99.33 | +3.21% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -0.00 | $101.57 | -2.89% | +0.18% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -0.00 | $101.93 | +1.21% | +1.81% | +0.46% | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-02 | -0.00 | $99.97 | +0.43% | +1.96% | +3.40% | -3.09% | — | — |
| 2026-08-30 | -0.00 | $105.59 | -3.70% | -5.33% | -2.30% | -3.64% | — | — |
| 2026-08-28 | -0.01 | $109.18 | -4.64% | -6.86% | -4.78% | -9.66% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | -0.00 | $75.28 | -0.97% | +2.29% | +24.71% | +40.27% | +36.18% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | -0.00 | $72.63 | +1.36% | +4.93% | +4.92% | +20.68% | +42.04% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.00 | $74.14 | -0.50% | +0.43% | -0.88% | +2.40% | +37.64% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.00 | $77.94 | -2.68% | -4.44% | -5.55% | -5.07% | +20.21% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.00 | $80.59 | -3.47% | -3.12% | -3.45% | -3.10% | -9.87% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $71.85 | -3.12% | -5.87% | +4.41% | +13.97% | +8.48% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -0.00 | $69.68 | +5.03% | +3.12% | +3.07% | +18.11% | +9.53% | — |
| 2026-06-17 | -0.00 | $73.46 | -2.01% | -5.16% | -5.25% | +0.14% | +2.46% | +39.54% |
| 2026-06-11 | -0.01 | $63.18 | +5.75% | +9.02% | +13.93% | +7.54% | +23.56% | +63.59% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.00 | $74.14 | -3.50% | -14.17% | -12.43% | -0.91% | +8.74% | +38.94% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.00 | $82.33 | -0.35% | +0.43% | -13.10% | -23.26% | -12.77% | +17.30% |
| 2026-05-24 | -0.00 | $85.67 | -0.52% | -2.34% | -3.48% | -27.42% | -16.13% | +9.36% |
| 2026-05-21 | -0.00 | $86.06 | +1.30% | -0.45% | -4.33% | -16.87% | -19.04% | -10.52% |
| 2026-05-17 | -0.01 | $86.52 | -1.54% | -2.69% | -0.98% | -4.43% | -14.53% | -12.92% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.02 | $91.12 | +1.10% | -5.05% | -5.55% | -9.64% | -26.71% | -16.35% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.00 | $86.94 | -2.45% | -4.49% | -3.56% | +10.90% | -3.76% | -14.33% |
| 2026-04-24 | -0.01 | $86.14 | +0.09% | +0.93% | -3.60% | +2.66% | -0.54% | -9.52% |
| 2026-04-19 | -0.01 | $86.17 | -3.08% | -0.14% | +0.04% | -2.21% | -0.98% | -12.96% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +24.71%
- 2026-06-11: +13.93%
- 2025-09-27: +13.78%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.49%
- 2025-11-11: -21.85%
- 2025-10-31: -15.96%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.