Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid When Bitcoin Drops 5% in a Day?
Hyperliquid has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -6.29% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -36.2% to -31.1% | 1 |
| -31.1% to -26.1% | 0 |
| -26.1% to -21.0% | 0 |
| -21.0% to -15.9% | 0 |
| -15.9% to -10.8% | 0 |
| -10.8% to -5.8% | 1 |
| -5.8% to -0.7% | 1 |
| -0.7% to +4.4% | 1 |
| +4.4% to +9.5% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.54% | -1.66% | 16.7% | 6.84% | -9.97% |
| 3 days | 6 | -0.98% | -2.58% | 33.3% | 11.42% | -15.46% |
| 7 days | 6 | -6.29% | -4.76% | 33.3% | 7.38% | -17.17% |
| 14 days | 6 | 2.07% | -1.65% | 66.7% | 5.48% | -11.91% |
| 30 days | 6 | -1.18% | -5.18% | 50.0% | 9.47% | -36.22% |
| 90 days | 6 | 25.32% | 9.59% | 66.7% | 32.65% | -32.65% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | -6.44 | $69.73 | +6.84% | -14.37% | -17.17% | +5.48% | -4.11% | +20.68% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.07 | $33.01 | -1.85% | -1.60% | -5.62% | -11.91% | -7.94% | +30.60% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $31.01 | -1.23% | +4.87% | +1.50% | +2.80% | +5.98% | +32.65% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $30.74 | -0.53% | -0.36% | +7.38% | +1.34% | +1.74% | +29.96% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $37.61 | -9.97% | -15.46% | -7.68% | -10.76% | -36.22% | -23.73% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $38.12 | -3.20% | +11.42% | -6.95% | +3.17% | +9.47% | -32.65% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: +7.38%
- 2026-02-01: +1.50%
- 2026-02-06: -5.62%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -17.17%
- 2025-11-21: -7.68%
- 2025-10-11: -6.95%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.