Transparent historical data
What Happens to Hyperliquid After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Hyperliquid has recorded 41 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.14% and 48.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -28.8% to -20.1% | 2 |
| -20.1% to -11.5% | 4 |
| -11.5% to -2.8% | 5 |
| -2.8% to +5.8% | 6 |
| +5.8% to +14.5% | 8 |
| +14.5% to +23.1% | 4 |
| +23.1% to +31.8% | 3 |
| +31.8% to +40.4% | 4 |
| +40.4% to +49.0% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 41 | 0.65% | 1.15% | 58.5% | 18.95% | -10.33% |
| 3 days | 41 | 1.06% | 2.00% | 56.1% | 29.03% | -18.31% |
| 7 days | 41 | -1.14% | 3.29% | 48.8% | 42.54% | -18.07% |
| 14 days | 41 | -1.29% | 4.88% | 48.8% | 54.05% | -20.23% |
| 30 days | 40 | 8.25% | 10.34% | 67.5% | 49.05% | -28.78% |
| 90 days | 31 | 39.69% | 41.14% | 87.1% | 134.58% | -47.67% |
Historical occurrences
41 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | -0.01 | $58.52 | +18.95% | +29.03% | +36.10% | +41.43% | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.00 | $56.04 | -1.62% | -0.35% | -3.71% | -1.78% | +46.85% | — |
| 2026-07-25 | -0.01 | $57.42 | +1.23% | -2.40% | -8.52% | -5.82% | +43.23% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | -0.02 | $60.83 | -2.42% | -5.61% | -9.37% | -9.54% | +21.08% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.00 | $60.19 | +1.53% | +1.06% | -3.44% | -13.35% | -1.28% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | -0.00 | $60.69 | -1.56% | +0.70% | -5.24% | -7.98% | -6.30% | — |
| 2026-07-09 | -0.01 | $67.60 | -0.76% | -1.16% | -1.14% | -12.19% | -20.00% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | -0.02 | $62.35 | +7.24% | +11.97% | +8.41% | +7.18% | -15.76% | — |
| 2026-06-27 | -0.01 | $64.30 | -4.17% | +3.88% | +9.87% | +4.89% | -7.31% | — |
| 2026-06-21 | -0.01 | $70.73 | -5.32% | -12.17% | -12.87% | -1.29% | -11.74% | — |
| 2026-06-15 | -0.01 | $63.89 | +4.69% | +11.31% | +4.81% | -3.86% | +2.50% | +24.67% |
| 2026-06-12 | -0.02 | $58.91 | +0.65% | +8.45% | +15.89% | +8.77% | +13.42% | +41.86% |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.02 | $56.60 | +5.33% | +2.05% | +7.23% | +24.96% | +24.68% | +49.17% |
| 2026-05-31 | -0.01 | $68.25 | +5.54% | +2.17% | -17.07% | -11.08% | -2.13% | +18.56% |
| 2026-05-27 | -0.03 | $59.49 | -2.80% | +8.27% | +17.22% | -2.91% | +7.71% | +32.60% |
| 2026-05-24 | -0.03 | $58.67 | +7.03% | +1.40% | +16.33% | -3.53% | +12.83% | +28.69% |
| 2026-05-19 | -0.03 | $47.71 | +0.75% | +22.80% | +28.12% | +54.05% | +49.05% | +19.71% |
| 2026-05-10 | -0.01 | $42.93 | +0.09% | -6.27% | -2.64% | +36.65% | +48.56% | +25.97% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $41.16 | +0.35% | +0.82% | -2.94% | +4.74% | +32.86% | +47.80% |
| 2026-04-15 | -0.02 | $43.60 | +2.50% | +2.36% | -8.78% | -7.88% | +1.29% | +45.52% |
| 2026-04-09 | -0.01 | $38.72 | +2.04% | +9.30% | +15.41% | +6.31% | +11.72% | +78.73% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.00 | $36.30 | +6.78% | +8.84% | +22.36% | +12.19% | +18.77% | +96.37% |
| 2026-03-29 | -0.01 | $39.48 | -4.22% | -7.56% | -7.81% | +7.19% | +5.50% | +62.89% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.00 | $42.08 | -6.59% | -7.56% | -4.16% | -14.39% | +6.05% | +74.82% |
| 2026-03-12 | -0.03 | $36.25 | +2.76% | +4.40% | +16.07% | +11.24% | +14.75% | +59.34% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-23: +42.54%
- 2026-08-19: +36.10%
- 2026-05-19: +28.12%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2025-10-29: -18.07%
- 2026-05-31: -17.07%
- 2026-06-21: -12.87%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.