Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 5% One-Day Drop?
Dogecoin has recorded 21 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.87% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -45.7% to -37.6% | 4 |
| -37.6% to -29.6% | 4 |
| -29.6% to -21.5% | 3 |
| -21.5% to -13.5% | 0 |
| -13.5% to -5.4% | 3 |
| -5.4% to +2.7% | 1 |
| +2.7% to +10.7% | 4 |
| +10.7% to +18.8% | 0 |
| +18.8% to +26.8% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 21 | 0.05% | 0.58% | 57.1% | 10.88% | -4.33% |
| 3 days | 21 | 1.46% | -0.36% | 52.4% | 10.50% | -21.66% |
| 7 days | 21 | -1.87% | -2.17% | 42.9% | 16.97% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 21 | -4.03% | -3.78% | 33.3% | 11.74% | -21.39% |
| 30 days | 21 | -9.16% | -8.14% | 23.8% | 32.94% | -34.70% |
| 90 days | 20 | -26.46% | -18.27% | 25.0% | 26.84% | -45.68% |
Historical occurrences
21 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | -5.20 | $0.07 | +0.50% | +6.00% | +2.02% | -0.21% | +32.94% | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -7.92 | $0.08 | +0.48% | +5.93% | +5.50% | +2.41% | -4.51% | +7.78% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.25 | $0.09 | -1.40% | -12.03% | -8.50% | -5.96% | -19.99% | -10.58% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.17 | $0.10 | -1.27% | -4.11% | +1.24% | -3.35% | +4.13% | -8.85% |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.42 | $0.09 | -2.21% | -4.24% | +1.31% | +0.36% | -1.59% | -2.85% |
| 2026-02-23 | -6.01 | $0.09 | +0.05% | +8.00% | -1.26% | -4.03% | +2.17% | +9.77% |
| 2026-02-16 | -7.68 | $0.10 | -1.34% | -3.43% | -8.88% | -10.02% | -2.10% | +6.23% |
| 2026-02-06 | -14.81 | $0.09 | +10.88% | +9.86% | +5.84% | +11.74% | +2.91% | +26.84% |
| 2026-02-01 | -9.96 | $0.10 | +0.31% | +1.46% | -5.61% | +6.74% | -9.82% | +3.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -6.18 | $0.12 | -1.49% | -11.03% | -24.70% | -20.30% | -19.58% | -11.59% |
| 2026-01-19 | -6.81 | $0.13 | +0.66% | -1.08% | -6.68% | -18.41% | -21.03% | -26.20% |
| 2025-12-06 | -5.39 | $0.14 | +0.15% | +2.20% | -1.87% | -5.27% | +7.44% | -32.63% |
| 2025-12-02 | -7.33 | $0.14 | +7.63% | +8.82% | +5.22% | -4.28% | -13.32% | -31.67% |
| 2025-11-22 | -5.95 | $0.14 | +0.05% | +8.26% | +7.18% | -0.47% | -6.50% | -29.32% |
| 2025-11-12 | -5.36 | $0.17 | -1.19% | -8.39% | -6.08% | -11.08% | -18.41% | -44.04% |
| 2025-11-04 | -10.37 | $0.17 | -2.78% | -3.40% | +8.80% | -9.14% | -9.16% | -37.31% |
| 2025-10-31 | -5.06 | $0.18 | +2.04% | +2.10% | -11.60% | -10.36% | -18.73% | -31.28% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.06 | $0.19 | -4.33% | +10.50% | -4.61% | +2.08% | -7.62% | -26.71% |
| 2025-10-08 | -7.33 | $0.25 | +3.38% | -21.66% | -17.30% | -21.39% | -34.70% | -38.61% |
| 2025-09-26 | -7.16 | $0.22 | +3.75% | +5.95% | +16.97% | +11.05% | -12.20% | -42.59% |
| 2025-09-23 | -7.48 | $0.24 | -1.68% | -7.25% | -2.61% | +10.57% | -21.28% | -45.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +16.97%
- 2025-11-04: +8.80%
- 2025-11-22: +7.18%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2025-10-08: -17.30%
- 2025-10-31: -11.60%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.