Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Dogecoin
21 historical signal(s) detected for Dogecoin; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (6 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-30 | $0.2413 | $0.2350 | -2.61% | 97.39 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2025-10-15 | $0.2473 | $0.2045 | -17.30% | 80.54 |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-07 | $0.1827 | $0.1615 | -11.60% | 71.19 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $0.1721 | $0.1616 | -6.08% | 66.87 |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-11-29 | $0.1402 | $0.1503 | +7.18% | 71.67 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.1355 | $0.1426 | +5.22% | 75.41 |
| 2026-01-19 | 2026-01-26 | $0.1284 | $0.1198 | -6.68% | 70.38 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.1178 | $0.0887 | -24.70% | 53.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $0.0887 | $0.0939 | +5.84% | 56.09 |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-23 | $0.1029 | $0.0938 | -8.88% | 51.11 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.0938 | $0.0926 | -1.26% | 50.47 |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-13 | $0.0940 | $0.0952 | +1.31% | 51.13 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.0956 | $0.0967 | +1.24% | 51.77 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $0.0926 | $0.0847 | -8.50% | 47.37 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-31 | $0.0692 | $0.0706 | +2.02% | 48.32 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Dogecoin · Read the full methodology