Transparent historical data
What Happens to Dogecoin After a 3% One-Day Drop?
Dogecoin has recorded 53 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.97% and 37.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.7% to -19.2% | 1 |
| -19.2% to -13.8% | 2 |
| -13.8% to -8.3% | 9 |
| -8.3% to -2.8% | 10 |
| -2.8% to +2.7% | 20 |
| +2.7% to +8.1% | 6 |
| +8.1% to +13.6% | 3 |
| +13.6% to +19.1% | 1 |
| +19.1% to +24.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 54 | -1.14% | 0.05% | 44.4% | 10.88% | -7.92% |
| 3 days | 54 | -0.71% | -0.71% | 42.6% | 21.55% | -21.66% |
| 7 days | 53 | -1.97% | -2.01% | 37.7% | 24.54% | -24.70% |
| 14 days | 52 | -4.15% | -3.37% | 26.9% | 25.94% | -21.39% |
| 30 days | 49 | -12.23% | -8.42% | 28.6% | 32.94% | -34.70% |
| 90 days | 44 | -27.29% | -22.81% | 15.9% | 26.84% | -54.01% |
Historical occurrences
55 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -4.28 | $0.08 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-10 | -4.31 | $0.09 | -3.81% | -1.57% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -3.44 | $0.08 | +5.78% | +6.71% | -0.60% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -3.78 | $0.08 | +0.93% | -0.42% | +10.73% | +0.46% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -4.40 | $0.09 | +0.06% | -2.83% | -0.51% | -1.10% | — | — |
| 2026-08-25 | -3.56 | $0.09 | -4.86% | -1.01% | -8.04% | +0.48% | — | — |
| 2026-08-13 | -3.09 | $0.07 | +0.71% | -0.09% | +7.73% | +25.94% | +21.06% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -4.08 | $0.07 | +0.72% | +0.34% | -0.24% | -0.97% | +24.68% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -5.20 | $0.07 | +0.50% | +6.00% | +2.02% | -0.21% | +32.94% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -3.14 | $0.07 | -2.45% | -0.16% | +0.30% | -1.19% | -6.97% | — |
| 2026-06-24 | -4.31 | $0.08 | -3.42% | -3.97% | -8.65% | -5.86% | -12.23% | — |
| 2026-06-05 | -3.10 | $0.09 | -7.92% | -2.57% | -2.83% | -5.69% | -12.31% | -7.66% |
| 2026-06-03 | -8.25 | $0.09 | -1.40% | -12.03% | -8.50% | -5.96% | -19.99% | -10.58% |
| 2026-05-23 | -3.10 | $0.10 | +0.71% | -0.18% | -2.54% | -20.30% | -19.62% | -21.29% |
| 2026-05-19 | -3.87 | $0.10 | -1.73% | +0.78% | -2.53% | -3.57% | -17.98% | -33.58% |
| 2026-05-17 | -3.48 | $0.11 | -0.41% | -5.92% | -5.84% | -8.02% | -19.43% | -35.97% |
| 2026-05-08 | -4.11 | $0.11 | +1.55% | +4.34% | +6.92% | -2.20% | -24.10% | -35.11% |
| 2026-04-19 | -4.75 | $0.09 | -1.80% | +0.45% | +3.43% | +14.49% | +10.46% | -23.47% |
| 2026-03-27 | -4.39 | $0.09 | -2.59% | -2.23% | -1.97% | +0.29% | +5.97% | -17.71% |
| 2026-03-19 | -5.17 | $0.10 | -1.27% | -4.11% | +1.24% | -3.35% | +4.13% | -8.85% |
| 2026-03-06 | -5.42 | $0.09 | -2.21% | -4.24% | +1.31% | +0.36% | -1.59% | -2.85% |
| 2026-03-04 | -3.80 | $0.09 | +9.68% | +1.45% | +4.62% | +11.20% | +0.06% | +11.40% |
| 2026-02-27 | -3.53 | $0.10 | -3.63% | -5.22% | -3.80% | -2.53% | -6.95% | +2.68% |
| 2026-02-23 | -6.01 | $0.09 | +0.05% | +8.00% | -1.26% | -4.03% | +2.17% | +9.77% |
| 2026-02-16 | -7.68 | $0.10 | -1.34% | -3.43% | -8.88% | -10.02% | -2.10% | +6.23% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +24.54%
- 2025-09-26: +16.97%
- 2026-08-31: +10.73%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -24.70%
- 2025-10-08: -17.30%
- 2025-10-29: -16.08%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.