Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
Cardano has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.68% and 40.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -34.2% to -29.3% | 1 |
| -29.3% to -24.4% | 1 |
| -24.4% to -19.4% | 3 |
| -19.4% to -14.5% | 2 |
| -14.5% to -9.6% | 2 |
| -9.6% to -4.6% | 2 |
| -4.6% to +0.3% | 3 |
| +0.3% to +5.2% | 1 |
| +5.2% to +10.2% | 3 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.44% | 0.48% | 40.0% | 8.39% | -5.12% |
| 3 days | 20 | -2.08% | 0.10% | 35.0% | 20.89% | -4.94% |
| 7 days | 20 | -2.68% | -1.30% | 40.0% | 13.56% | -15.29% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.19% | -3.76% | 36.8% | 7.47% | -21.36% |
| 30 days | 18 | -8.36% | -9.46% | 22.2% | 10.18% | -34.23% |
| 90 days | 17 | -30.30% | -24.13% | 11.8% | 32.21% | -58.74% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.17 | -0.24% | +0.80% | +4.91% | -2.19% | +10.18% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.17 | -0.42% | +7.37% | -3.99% | -15.66% | -2.76% | +24.40% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.17 | +3.17% | -2.73% | +10.77% | -5.17% | +5.76% | +32.21% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.25 | -3.55% | +4.32% | -0.28% | -0.22% | +6.40% | -34.89% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.26 | -5.12% | -3.73% | -9.08% | -5.35% | -0.43% | -30.30% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.28 | +2.94% | -2.61% | -12.02% | -11.21% | -10.19% | -43.42% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.27 | +3.10% | +6.29% | +12.13% | +3.27% | -6.54% | -38.39% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.29 | -1.19% | -4.85% | -9.48% | -1.12% | -15.09% | -26.77% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.29 | -1.67% | -0.02% | -6.64% | +4.69% | -13.29% | -17.95% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.31 | -3.34% | -4.94% | -6.14% | -15.04% | -20.34% | -22.47% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.29 | +8.39% | +5.67% | +3.70% | +0.73% | -0.25% | -7.26% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.28 | -1.26% | -4.57% | +2.86% | +6.67% | -5.36% | -7.21% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $0.43 | -2.21% | -4.83% | -15.29% | -12.44% | -34.23% | -42.21% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $0.38 | -0.88% | -1.56% | -7.15% | +5.21% | +2.41% | -24.69% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.43 | +3.87% | -4.10% | +8.46% | -11.08% | -17.70% | -33.81% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $0.44 | -0.45% | -4.70% | +3.36% | +4.09% | -19.80% | -36.54% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $0.70 | +4.23% | -4.47% | -6.79% | -2.71% | -20.65% | -42.16% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $0.85 | +2.36% | -1.23% | -1.37% | -21.36% | -28.41% | -58.74% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +13.56%
- 2026-03-10: +12.13%
- 2026-06-08: +10.77%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -15.29%
- 2026-03-24: -12.02%
- 2026-03-05: -9.48%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.