Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
20 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.8506 | $0.8390 | -1.37% | 98.63 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.7002 | $0.6527 | -6.79% | 91.94 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $0.4357 | $0.4504 | +3.36% | 95.02 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.3764 | $0.3495 | -7.15% | 88.23 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.4305 | $0.3647 | -15.29% | 74.74 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.2832 | $0.2913 | +2.86% | 76.88 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.2913 | $0.3021 | +3.70% | 79.72 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.3094 | $0.2904 | -6.14% | 74.82 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.2904 | $0.2628 | -9.48% | 67.73 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.2767 | $0.2435 | -12.02% | 59.59 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.2639 | $0.2400 | -9.08% | 54.18 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.1651 | $0.1829 | +10.77% | 60.02 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.1654 | $0.1735 | +4.91% | 62.96 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.1870 | $0.2124 | +13.56% | 71.50 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.2212 | $0.2046 | -7.49% | 66.15 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.