Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Bitcoin Rises 5% in a Day?
Cardano has recorded 7 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.28% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -9.5% to -6.9% | 2 |
| -6.9% to -4.4% | 1 |
| -4.4% to -1.8% | 0 |
| -1.8% to +0.8% | 1 |
| +0.8% to +3.3% | 1 |
| +3.3% to +5.9% | 0 |
| +5.9% to +8.4% | 0 |
| +8.4% to +11.0% | 1 |
| +11.0% to +13.6% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 7 | -1.26% | -0.51% | 28.6% | 6.39% | -4.49% |
| 3 days | 7 | -4.10% | 1.10% | 42.9% | 20.89% | -4.94% |
| 7 days | 7 | -0.28% | 0.21% | 42.9% | 13.56% | -9.48% |
| 14 days | 6 | -0.67% | -2.22% | 33.3% | 7.47% | -15.04% |
| 30 days | 5 | -15.09% | -10.42% | 20.0% | 6.40% | -20.34% |
| 90 days | 5 | -26.77% | -25.03% | 0.0% | -7.21% | -34.89% |
Historical occurrences
7 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.22 | -4.49% | +0.98% | -7.49% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.19 | +6.39% | +20.89% | +13.56% | +7.47% | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.25 | -3.55% | +4.32% | -0.28% | -0.22% | +6.40% | -34.89% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.29 | -1.19% | -4.85% | -9.48% | -1.12% | -15.09% | -26.77% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.31 | -3.34% | -4.94% | -6.14% | -15.04% | -20.34% | -22.47% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.28 | -1.26% | -4.57% | +2.86% | +6.67% | -5.36% | -7.21% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.43 | +3.87% | -4.10% | +8.46% | -11.08% | -17.70% | -33.81% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +13.56%
- 2025-12-03: +8.46%
- 2026-02-07: +2.86%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-03-05: -9.48%
- 2026-09-04: -7.49%
- 2026-02-26: -6.14%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.