Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day?
Cardano has recorded 19 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.29% and 52.6% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.6% to -22.2% | 2 |
| -22.2% to -17.7% | 1 |
| -17.7% to -13.3% | 1 |
| -13.3% to -8.9% | 1 |
| -8.9% to -4.5% | 1 |
| -4.5% to -0.1% | 3 |
| -0.1% to +4.3% | 6 |
| +4.3% to +8.7% | 2 |
| +8.7% to +13.1% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 19 | -0.61% | -0.77% | 31.6% | 12.41% | -8.56% |
| 3 days | 19 | 0.38% | -0.62% | 52.6% | 14.77% | -22.17% |
| 7 days | 19 | 0.29% | -2.83% | 52.6% | 13.08% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 19 | -3.74% | -5.32% | 42.1% | 6.71% | -22.67% |
| 30 days | 18 | -9.45% | -8.99% | 16.7% | 20.91% | -33.37% |
| 90 days | 18 | -31.48% | -28.11% | 5.6% | 41.18% | -53.71% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -3.30 | $0.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -3.05 | $0.20 | -0.61% | -2.63% | +4.00% | +1.55% | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -4.47 | $0.16 | +0.35% | +8.73% | +8.28% | +3.41% | +20.91% | +41.18% |
| 2026-06-02 | -3.10 | $0.23 | -7.87% | -22.17% | -26.21% | -22.67% | -33.37% | -16.53% |
| 2026-04-13 | -3.23 | $0.24 | +5.25% | +4.27% | +2.69% | +6.71% | +14.62% | -29.94% |
| 2026-03-27 | -3.61 | $0.27 | -8.56% | -10.96% | -10.95% | -5.65% | -7.10% | -44.85% |
| 2026-03-19 | -3.76 | $0.29 | -1.28% | +0.38% | -1.06% | -13.33% | -9.85% | -40.01% |
| 2026-03-07 | -3.85 | $0.28 | -0.09% | -3.11% | +0.81% | -3.74% | -7.82% | -35.04% |
| 2026-02-23 | -4.17 | $0.28 | -1.34% | +9.30% | +1.91% | -5.30% | +0.64% | -13.15% |
| 2026-02-04 | -3.87 | $0.31 | -1.87% | -7.29% | -14.12% | -2.83% | -6.08% | -18.20% |
| 2026-02-01 | -6.47 | $0.30 | -1.97% | +1.09% | -7.45% | +4.49% | -5.03% | -17.85% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.14 | $0.35 | -4.72% | -14.36% | -26.56% | -18.14% | -14.99% | -29.29% |
| 2026-01-21 | -4.48 | $0.36 | +3.76% | +3.00% | +3.37% | -16.23% | -20.28% | -31.97% |
| 2025-12-06 | -3.10 | $0.42 | -0.48% | +3.93% | -1.61% | -9.49% | -3.34% | -30.99% |
| 2025-12-02 | -4.49 | $0.39 | +12.41% | +13.93% | +12.04% | +0.60% | -13.59% | -25.21% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.24 | $0.43 | -5.44% | -5.52% | +0.29% | +1.61% | -13.75% | -33.29% |
| 2025-11-15 | -4.73 | $0.50 | +1.07% | -6.53% | -17.90% | -15.57% | -20.39% | -43.15% |
| 2025-11-04 | -3.66 | $0.55 | -5.47% | -3.63% | +7.39% | -15.59% | -18.34% | -46.29% |
| 2025-10-11 | -7.13 | $0.64 | -0.60% | +14.77% | -1.76% | +3.21% | -9.06% | -37.73% |
| 2025-09-26 | -3.60 | $0.77 | +2.77% | +4.97% | +13.08% | +5.92% | -15.03% | -53.71% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-26: +13.08%
- 2025-12-02: +12.04%
- 2026-06-06: +8.28%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2026-06-02: -26.21%
- 2025-11-15: -17.90%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.