Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Drops 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin drops 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Cardano
20 historical signal(s) detected for Cardano; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $0.7699 | $0.8707 | +13.08% | 113.08 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $0.6359 | $0.6247 | -1.76% | 111.09 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $0.5515 | $0.5923 | +7.39% | 119.31 |
| 2025-11-15 | 2025-11-22 | $0.4981 | $0.4090 | -17.90% | 97.95 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $0.3857 | $0.4322 | +12.04% | 109.75 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $0.3647 | $0.3770 | +3.37% | 113.45 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $0.3459 | $0.2541 | -26.56% | 83.32 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $0.2831 | $0.2885 | +1.91% | 84.91 |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026-03-14 | $0.2766 | $0.2788 | +0.81% | 85.60 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-26 | $0.2871 | $0.2841 | -1.06% | 84.70 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2026-04-03 | $0.2695 | $0.2400 | -10.95% | 75.42 |
| 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-20 | $0.2364 | $0.2428 | +2.69% | 77.45 |
| 2026-06-02 | 2026-06-09 | $0.2308 | $0.1703 | -26.21% | 57.16 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2026-09-05 | $0.2031 | $0.2112 | +4.00% | 59.44 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.