Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Cardano has recorded 42 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.68% and 40.5% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -35.4% to -28.5% | 3 |
| -28.5% to -21.7% | 2 |
| -21.7% to -14.8% | 6 |
| -14.8% to -7.9% | 9 |
| -7.9% to -1.1% | 8 |
| -1.1% to +5.8% | 6 |
| +5.8% to +12.6% | 3 |
| +12.6% to +19.5% | 4 |
| +19.5% to +26.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 43 | -0.60% | -0.30% | 37.2% | 11.48% | -9.67% |
| 3 days | 43 | -1.16% | -0.25% | 41.9% | 31.37% | -26.34% |
| 7 days | 42 | -1.68% | -2.51% | 40.5% | 32.34% | -26.56% |
| 14 days | 42 | -6.74% | -6.27% | 33.3% | 26.32% | -35.36% |
| 30 days | 41 | -8.32% | -8.76% | 26.8% | 34.24% | -37.43% |
| 90 days | 36 | -30.12% | -22.88% | 16.7% | 34.37% | -50.51% |
Historical occurrences
43 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.00 | $0.21 | -3.45% | -2.15% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-19 | -0.00 | $0.17 | +7.24% | +31.37% | +19.89% | +12.73% | — | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -0.01 | $0.17 | -2.73% | -1.51% | +0.74% | +19.36% | +34.24% | — |
| 2026-07-16 | -0.00 | $0.17 | -2.61% | +0.98% | +5.68% | -1.83% | +9.07% | — |
| 2026-07-11 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -0.60% | -5.55% | +0.07% | -1.69% | +16.68% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.02 | $0.15 | -1.01% | -0.62% | +32.34% | +14.14% | +7.12% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -0.01 | $0.16 | +0.70% | -2.25% | -8.50% | +10.98% | +2.50% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.00 | $0.18 | -3.48% | -8.38% | -11.28% | -18.44% | -7.54% | +14.10% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.00 | $0.17 | +6.53% | +0.34% | -4.98% | -15.47% | -8.32% | +20.14% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.00 | $0.17 | -3.02% | +0.00% | +4.79% | -7.04% | -1.98% | +31.12% |
| 2026-06-07 | -0.01 | $0.16 | +5.03% | +5.08% | +9.21% | +3.78% | +17.05% | +34.37% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.01 | $0.21 | -5.85% | -26.34% | -22.33% | -19.00% | -24.14% | -7.00% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.00 | $0.24 | -0.95% | -0.46% | -15.49% | -32.21% | -37.43% | -11.74% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.00 | $0.24 | +1.44% | +0.40% | -3.95% | -35.36% | -35.40% | -17.90% |
| 2026-05-16 | -0.00 | $0.26 | -2.46% | -3.83% | -7.33% | -10.98% | -30.07% | -30.31% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.02 | $0.25 | -1.59% | -3.04% | -1.11% | +11.97% | -4.91% | -34.71% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.02 | $0.24 | +5.25% | +4.27% | +2.69% | +6.71% | +14.62% | -29.94% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.01 | $0.25 | +7.43% | +3.49% | +1.27% | +0.98% | +8.72% | -22.91% |
| 2026-03-28 | -0.01 | $0.25 | -0.22% | -1.21% | +0.05% | +3.11% | +2.36% | -41.71% |
| 2026-03-22 | -0.02 | $0.29 | -6.53% | -1.16% | -14.68% | -13.96% | -13.91% | -43.79% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.01 | $0.29 | -1.28% | +0.38% | -1.06% | -13.33% | -9.85% | -40.01% |
| 2026-03-14 | -0.03 | $0.28 | +3.76% | +7.77% | -4.52% | -11.61% | -15.21% | -38.91% |
| 2026-03-07 | -0.02 | $0.28 | -0.09% | -3.11% | +0.81% | -3.74% | -7.82% | -35.04% |
| 2026-03-03 | -0.01 | $0.29 | -1.67% | -0.02% | -6.64% | +4.69% | -13.29% | -17.95% |
| 2026-02-21 | -0.02 | $0.30 | -0.21% | -7.57% | -2.86% | -8.46% | -10.83% | -17.17% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-28: +32.34%
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2026-08-19: +19.89%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -26.56%
- 2026-06-03: -22.33%
- 2025-11-11: -21.40%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.