Transparent historical data
What Happens to Cardano After Funding Falls to -0.01%?
Cardano has recorded 42 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.00% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -26.2% to -19.7% | 1 |
| -19.7% to -13.2% | 3 |
| -13.2% to -6.7% | 11 |
| -6.7% to -0.2% | 12 |
| -0.2% to +6.3% | 7 |
| +6.3% to +12.8% | 5 |
| +12.8% to +19.3% | 1 |
| +19.3% to +25.8% | 1 |
| +25.8% to +32.3% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 43 | 0.10% | 0.31% | 51.2% | 11.48% | -8.95% |
| 3 days | 42 | 0.17% | 0.17% | 52.4% | 16.85% | -22.17% |
| 7 days | 42 | -3.00% | -2.02% | 33.3% | 32.34% | -26.21% |
| 14 days | 41 | -1.23% | -1.78% | 46.3% | 26.32% | -32.21% |
| 30 days | 41 | -3.32% | -3.51% | 39.0% | 31.38% | -37.43% |
| 90 days | 34 | -28.51% | -21.23% | 14.7% | 41.18% | -44.85% |
Historical occurrences
43 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -0.01 | $0.21 | -6.32% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -0.01 | $0.21 | +3.34% | +4.35% | -2.36% | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-27 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -6.29% | -2.33% | +14.17% | +17.22% | +26.05% | — |
| 2026-07-23 | -0.01 | $0.17 | -3.42% | -5.55% | -7.10% | +9.60% | +31.38% | — |
| 2026-07-20 | -0.01 | $0.17 | +2.13% | +5.02% | -0.11% | +14.05% | +5.03% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | -0.02 | $0.16 | +5.11% | +2.12% | +7.75% | -1.23% | +15.92% | — |
| 2026-07-10 | -0.01 | $0.17 | +0.10% | -2.69% | -3.46% | +1.17% | +19.76% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.01 | $0.15 | -1.01% | -0.62% | +32.34% | +14.14% | +7.12% | — |
| 2026-06-19 | -0.03 | $0.16 | -0.94% | -4.27% | -12.15% | -1.35% | +1.90% | — |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.01 | $0.18 | -3.48% | -8.38% | -11.28% | -18.44% | -7.54% | +14.10% |
| 2026-06-14 | -0.01 | $0.17 | +6.53% | +0.34% | -4.98% | -15.47% | -8.32% | +20.14% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.02 | $0.17 | -3.02% | +0.00% | +4.79% | -7.04% | -1.98% | +31.12% |
| 2026-06-06 | -0.01 | $0.16 | +0.35% | +8.73% | +8.28% | +3.41% | +20.91% | +41.18% |
| 2026-06-02 | -0.01 | $0.23 | -7.87% | -22.17% | -26.21% | -22.67% | -33.37% | -16.53% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.02 | $0.24 | -0.95% | -0.46% | -15.49% | -32.21% | -37.43% | -11.74% |
| 2026-05-15 | -0.01 | $0.27 | -3.22% | -6.72% | -7.39% | -13.15% | -36.47% | -32.48% |
| 2026-04-27 | -0.02 | $0.25 | -1.59% | -3.04% | -1.11% | +11.97% | -4.91% | -34.71% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.01 | $0.25 | +0.58% | +0.75% | -1.57% | +7.48% | -2.48% | -30.17% |
| 2026-04-20 | -0.01 | $0.24 | +2.20% | +2.37% | +3.91% | +2.76% | +2.18% | -31.36% |
| 2026-04-15 | -0.02 | $0.24 | +2.71% | +7.87% | +4.10% | +2.85% | +12.60% | -34.42% |
| 2026-04-11 | -0.01 | $0.25 | -1.79% | -2.08% | +1.87% | -1.44% | +11.16% | -34.49% |
| 2026-04-07 | -0.02 | $0.25 | +7.43% | +3.49% | +1.27% | +0.98% | +8.72% | -22.91% |
| 2026-04-01 | -0.03 | $0.24 | +2.71% | +1.77% | +8.95% | -0.95% | +1.62% | -39.91% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.01 | $0.27 | -8.56% | -10.96% | -10.95% | -5.65% | -7.10% | -44.85% |
| 2026-03-21 | -0.01 | $0.27 | +8.26% | +3.94% | -7.43% | -7.38% | -8.81% | -38.57% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-06-28: +32.34%
- 2026-01-01: +20.64%
- 2026-07-27: +14.17%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -26.21%
- 2025-12-10: -18.02%
- 2026-01-26: -16.84%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is at or below -0.01%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.