Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.30% and 42.9% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -44.6% to -37.7% | 2 |
| -37.7% to -30.9% | 0 |
| -30.9% to -24.0% | 0 |
| -24.0% to -17.2% | 0 |
| -17.2% to -10.4% | 2 |
| -10.4% to -3.5% | 1 |
| -3.5% to +3.3% | 3 |
| +3.3% to +10.2% | 1 |
| +10.2% to +17.0% | 5 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.23% | -0.38% | 42.9% | 8.39% | -6.74% |
| 3 days | 14 | -1.95% | -1.49% | 35.7% | 7.79% | -7.82% |
| 7 days | 14 | -3.30% | -2.15% | 42.9% | 15.92% | -17.40% |
| 14 days | 14 | -4.23% | -5.99% | 28.6% | 11.58% | -38.92% |
| 30 days | 14 | -0.32% | -4.28% | 42.9% | 17.00% | -44.55% |
| 90 days | 11 | -19.01% | -9.67% | 36.4% | 26.66% | -46.13% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $213.08 | +0.06% | -0.24% | +0.01% | -3.71% | +14.76% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $216.79 | -3.22% | -1.98% | -1.94% | -4.76% | +14.03% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $236.27 | +0.14% | -6.13% | -6.96% | -10.42% | -10.07% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $355.76 | -2.40% | -3.37% | -14.72% | -38.92% | -44.55% | -19.01% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $378.36 | -2.15% | +0.54% | -6.97% | -22.46% | -43.88% | -46.13% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $555.02 | -0.27% | -6.81% | -17.40% | -9.07% | -16.89% | -19.31% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $573.59 | +1.85% | +3.68% | +4.46% | -8.21% | -2.46% | -22.64% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $632.78 | +1.43% | -1.92% | -5.26% | -6.01% | -16.63% | -29.92% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $581.38 | -0.20% | -7.82% | +7.44% | +2.10% | +11.38% | -20.96% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $559.82 | +4.29% | +3.52% | +3.85% | +11.58% | +14.55% | -17.09% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $505.31 | -4.84% | -6.49% | +2.36% | -2.98% | +17.00% | +2.36% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $481.24 | -1.63% | +4.53% | +15.92% | -0.08% | -0.16% | +21.20% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $504.17 | -6.74% | -6.23% | -4.65% | +7.30% | -0.48% | +18.51% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $499.57 | +8.39% | +7.79% | -6.21% | +1.80% | +3.54% | +26.66% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-10-22: +15.92%
- 2025-12-13: +7.44%
- 2026-01-21: +4.46%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -17.40%
- 2026-05-24: -14.72%
- 2026-05-19: -6.97%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.