Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 25, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for Bitcoin Cash
14 historical signal(s) detected for Bitcoin Cash; 11 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025-10-19 | $499.5693 | $468.5359 | -6.21% | 93.79 |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-29 | $481.2427 | $557.8349 | +15.92% | 108.71 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $505.3144 | $517.2491 | +2.36% | 111.28 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-13 | $559.8216 | $581.3810 | +3.85% | 115.57 |
| 2025-12-13 | 2025-12-20 | $581.3810 | $624.6620 | +7.44% | 124.17 |
| 2026-01-10 | 2026-01-17 | $632.7785 | $599.4657 | -5.26% | 117.63 |
| 2026-01-21 | 2026-01-28 | $573.5879 | $599.1723 | +4.46% | 122.88 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $555.0155 | $458.4375 | -17.40% | 101.50 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2026-05-26 | $378.3588 | $351.9784 | -6.97% | 94.42 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-21 | $236.2679 | $219.8240 | -6.96% | 87.85 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2026-08-07 | $216.7873 | $212.5756 | -1.94% | 86.14 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.
View the full study for Bitcoin Cash · Read the full methodology