Transparent historical data
What Happens to Bitcoin Cash When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
Bitcoin Cash has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.90% and 41.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.3% to -21.0% | 1 |
| -21.0% to -17.6% | 0 |
| -17.6% to -14.3% | 1 |
| -14.3% to -11.0% | 0 |
| -11.0% to -7.6% | 1 |
| -7.6% to -4.3% | 1 |
| -4.3% to -1.0% | 2 |
| -1.0% to +2.4% | 4 |
| +2.4% to +5.7% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | 0.01% | -0.85% | 50.0% | 3.16% | -9.53% |
| 3 days | 12 | 1.12% | -0.57% | 66.7% | 9.26% | -21.94% |
| 7 days | 12 | -0.90% | -4.18% | 41.7% | 5.70% | -24.32% |
| 14 days | 12 | -1.70% | -2.08% | 41.7% | 11.26% | -20.41% |
| 30 days | 12 | -3.54% | -1.94% | 41.7% | 16.55% | -18.12% |
| 90 days | 11 | -19.31% | -19.27% | 9.1% | 3.38% | -53.80% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $239.43 | -1.77% | +2.35% | -1.18% | -6.55% | -11.22% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $268.78 | -9.53% | -21.94% | -24.32% | -20.41% | -18.12% | -8.10% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $459.56 | +3.16% | +2.41% | +1.24% | -3.10% | -3.35% | -53.80% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $555.02 | -0.27% | -6.81% | -17.40% | -9.07% | -16.89% | -19.31% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $571.83 | +1.04% | +3.19% | -9.55% | -7.75% | -14.97% | -20.68% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $584.21 | +2.36% | +1.49% | +1.00% | -8.89% | -3.73% | -23.24% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $599.35 | -1.02% | +9.26% | +4.94% | -0.31% | -7.65% | -22.26% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $589.47 | +0.70% | +5.44% | +0.64% | +7.19% | +0.59% | -19.01% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $558.60 | -4.06% | -2.23% | +5.70% | +11.26% | +10.33% | -15.97% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $583.84 | +2.48% | +0.26% | -0.62% | +1.45% | +10.56% | -22.31% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $507.08 | +0.29% | -1.05% | -4.22% | +7.24% | +14.65% | +3.38% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $513.37 | -3.60% | +0.76% | -6.45% | +3.94% | +16.55% | -10.70% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-15: +5.70%
- 2026-01-01: +4.94%
- 2026-03-20: +1.24%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-03: -24.32%
- 2026-01-30: -17.40%
- 2026-01-26: -9.55%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.