Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
Avalanche has recorded 51 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -0.33% and 47.1% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 14-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -29.3% to -24.0% | 3 |
| -24.0% to -18.6% | 4 |
| -18.6% to -13.3% | 5 |
| -13.3% to -7.9% | 6 |
| -7.9% to -2.6% | 6 |
| -2.6% to +2.8% | 10 |
| +2.8% to +8.1% | 9 |
| +8.1% to +13.5% | 4 |
| +13.5% to +18.8% | 4 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 52 | -0.59% | -0.47% | 38.5% | 11.31% | -11.67% |
| 3 days | 52 | -1.22% | -1.11% | 44.2% | 13.44% | -17.73% |
| 7 days | 51 | -0.33% | -2.27% | 47.1% | 17.02% | -19.62% |
| 14 days | 51 | -1.83% | -3.69% | 45.1% | 18.83% | -29.34% |
| 30 days | 50 | -2.57% | -6.93% | 38.0% | 19.65% | -32.65% |
| 90 days | 44 | -27.50% | -20.93% | 18.2% | 25.51% | -46.96% |
Historical occurrences
52 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | -0.00 | $7.42 | +0.47% | -1.74% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -0.00 | $7.11 | +1.66% | +1.11% | +11.14% | +2.61% | — | — |
| 2026-08-12 | -0.01 | $6.32 | -0.03% | +2.48% | +0.21% | +16.00% | +17.57% | — |
| 2026-08-07 | -0.01 | $6.43 | -0.04% | -0.23% | +0.25% | +13.33% | +18.01% | — |
| 2026-07-24 | -0.02 | $6.26 | +0.59% | +7.56% | +2.69% | +2.72% | +19.65% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | -0.00 | $6.56 | +0.86% | -4.04% | +0.07% | +1.72% | +11.07% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | -0.01 | $6.40 | +0.69% | +4.58% | +0.89% | +5.21% | -1.36% | — |
| 2026-07-08 | -0.00 | $6.69 | -3.27% | +0.74% | +0.23% | -1.83% | -3.80% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.01 | $6.76 | -6.63% | -7.73% | -4.53% | -1.47% | -2.60% | +7.53% |
| 2026-06-11 | -0.00 | $6.38 | +4.02% | +5.24% | +5.93% | +1.13% | +5.58% | +25.51% |
| 2026-06-09 | -0.00 | $6.76 | -1.89% | -1.87% | +1.09% | -7.89% | -4.36% | +16.83% |
| 2026-06-06 | -0.00 | $6.72 | -0.89% | +0.63% | -2.28% | -12.33% | +2.93% | +11.86% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.01 | $8.17 | -1.50% | -17.73% | -18.78% | -15.88% | -16.84% | -11.52% |
| 2026-05-28 | -0.00 | $9.03 | -1.22% | -0.94% | -10.88% | -29.34% | -26.74% | -18.87% |
| 2026-05-16 | -0.01 | $9.54 | -2.56% | -3.12% | -4.09% | -7.50% | -28.85% | -32.36% |
| 2026-05-14 | -0.00 | $9.75 | +1.50% | -4.72% | -4.76% | -7.40% | -32.65% | -35.23% |
| 2026-04-30 | -0.00 | $9.12 | -0.32% | +0.68% | +5.40% | +6.93% | -3.28% | -27.97% |
| 2026-04-28 | -0.00 | $9.27 | -1.01% | -1.90% | -1.00% | +9.25% | -2.55% | -27.31% |
| 2026-04-19 | -0.01 | $9.34 | -3.52% | +0.57% | +0.31% | -1.64% | -1.04% | -29.48% |
| 2026-04-02 | -0.01 | $9.13 | -4.11% | -1.50% | -0.90% | +3.44% | -0.47% | -28.48% |
| 2026-03-27 | -0.02 | $9.15 | -4.02% | -6.01% | -4.30% | +2.58% | +2.37% | -29.46% |
| 2026-03-23 | -0.00 | $9.12 | +5.46% | +6.97% | -5.70% | +0.38% | +2.97% | -31.60% |
| 2026-03-07 | -0.00 | $9.08 | -0.64% | +2.51% | +7.33% | +5.51% | +0.82% | -15.20% |
| 2026-02-28 | -0.00 | $9.01 | +2.40% | +2.22% | +0.72% | +8.11% | -4.60% | -1.03% |
| 2026-02-22 | -0.01 | $9.21 | -7.26% | -9.06% | +0.23% | -2.04% | +4.43% | -0.68% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-12-30: +17.02%
- 2026-01-01: +14.66%
- 2026-08-31: +11.14%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-29: -19.62%
- 2026-06-03: -18.78%
- 2025-10-28: -18.12%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.