Historical rule simulator

Backtest: After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals

Simulates one mechanical rule โ€” buy after 3 consecutive negative funding intervals, hold a fixed number of days, then exit โ€” using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.

Rule results for Avalanche

52 historical signal(s) detected for Avalanche; 28 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (24 skipped because a position was already open).

Completed trades27
Win rate44.4%
Average return / trade-0.95%
Compounded total return-28.62%
Max drawdown-36.12%
Buy & hold, same period-63.22%

Hypothetical growth of $100

1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.

Entry dateExit dateEntry priceExit priceTrade returnEquity after
2025-10-12 2025-10-19 $21.4854 $20.2124 -5.93% 94.07
2025-10-28 2025-11-04 $20.3248 $16.6429 -18.12% 77.03
2025-11-07 2025-11-14 $16.1013 $16.0839 -0.11% 76.95
2025-11-21 2025-11-28 $13.8139 $15.0210 +8.74% 83.67
2025-11-28 2025-12-05 $15.0210 $14.3974 -4.15% 80.20
2025-12-06 2025-12-13 $13.2216 $13.1091 -0.85% 79.52
2025-12-14 2025-12-21 $13.3846 $12.2085 -8.79% 72.53
2025-12-21 2025-12-28 $12.2085 $12.6893 +3.94% 75.39
2025-12-30 2026-01-06 $12.3607 $14.4641 +17.02% 88.21
2026-01-16 2026-01-23 $13.8327 $12.2528 -11.42% 78.14
2026-01-24 2026-01-31 $12.1790 $10.8979 -10.52% 69.92
2026-02-06 2026-02-13 $8.3277 $8.9723 +7.74% 75.33
2026-02-19 2026-02-26 $8.9387 $9.5407 +6.74% 80.41
2026-02-28 2026-03-07 $9.0128 $9.0780 +0.72% 80.99
2026-03-07 2026-03-14 $9.0780 $9.7438 +7.33% 86.93
2026-03-23 2026-03-30 $9.1175 $8.5979 -5.70% 81.97
2026-04-02 2026-04-09 $9.1290 $9.0464 -0.90% 81.23
2026-04-19 2026-04-26 $9.3352 $9.3644 +0.31% 81.49
2026-04-28 2026-05-05 $9.2663 $9.1733 -1.00% 80.67
2026-05-14 2026-05-21 $9.7510 $9.2873 -4.76% 76.83
2026-05-28 2026-06-04 $9.0297 $8.0470 -10.88% 68.47
2026-06-06 2026-06-13 $6.7209 $6.5676 -2.28% 66.91
2026-06-18 2026-06-25 $6.7589 $6.4529 -4.53% 63.88
2026-07-08 2026-07-15 $6.6869 $6.7022 +0.23% 64.02
2026-07-22 2026-07-29 $6.5642 $6.5688 +0.07% 64.07
2026-08-07 2026-08-14 $6.4330 $6.4493 +0.25% 64.23
2026-08-31 2026-09-07 $7.1102 $7.9020 +11.14% 71.38

How this backtest works

Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.

View the full study for Avalanche ยท Read the full methodology