Transparent historical data
What Happens to Avalanche After Negative Funding?
Avalanche has recorded 62 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.27% and 46.8% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -24.2% to -19.2% | 1 |
| -19.2% to -14.2% | 0 |
| -14.2% to -9.2% | 7 |
| -9.2% to -4.2% | 14 |
| -4.2% to +0.8% | 16 |
| +0.8% to +5.8% | 13 |
| +5.8% to +10.8% | 6 |
| +10.8% to +15.8% | 3 |
| +15.8% to +20.8% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 64 | -1.13% | -1.02% | 37.5% | 6.37% | -8.44% |
| 3 days | 63 | -0.05% | -1.07% | 49.2% | 14.20% | -13.72% |
| 7 days | 62 | -1.27% | -0.86% | 46.8% | 20.77% | -24.20% |
| 14 days | 61 | -2.04% | -4.57% | 41.0% | 17.27% | -28.63% |
| 30 days | 59 | -4.81% | -10.34% | 22.0% | 21.23% | -43.11% |
| 90 days | 45 | -31.86% | -31.11% | 4.4% | 7.53% | -66.12% |
Historical occurrences
64 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | -0.00 | $7.56 | -3.89% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-11 | -0.00 | $7.42 | +0.47% | -1.74% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | -0.00 | $8.01 | -2.65% | -6.86% | -9.25% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-31 | -0.00 | $7.11 | +1.66% | +1.11% | +11.14% | +2.61% | — | — |
| 2026-08-29 | -0.00 | $7.31 | +0.34% | -1.07% | +1.08% | +2.10% | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | -0.01 | $6.32 | -0.01% | +0.07% | +18.48% | +15.92% | +19.56% | — |
| 2026-08-11 | -0.01 | $6.43 | -1.80% | +0.28% | -1.34% | +17.27% | +21.23% | — |
| 2026-08-06 | -0.01 | $6.66 | -3.35% | -2.70% | -5.14% | +1.78% | +10.96% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | -0.01 | $6.43 | -0.82% | +1.76% | +0.03% | +0.28% | +14.00% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.00 | $6.40 | +2.61% | +0.46% | +2.57% | +0.46% | +16.23% | — |
| 2026-07-22 | -0.00 | $6.56 | +0.86% | -4.04% | +0.07% | +1.72% | +11.07% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.01 | $6.57 | -1.65% | -0.05% | +3.11% | -5.80% | -3.39% | — |
| 2026-07-17 | -0.00 | $6.51 | +1.16% | -0.75% | -3.77% | -1.19% | -2.82% | — |
| 2026-07-12 | -0.02 | $6.55 | -2.20% | +2.38% | +0.33% | +3.45% | -1.76% | — |
| 2026-07-07 | -0.01 | $6.92 | -3.41% | -3.56% | -6.89% | -5.06% | -3.86% | — |
| 2026-07-05 | -0.01 | $6.96 | -0.60% | -3.91% | -5.94% | -5.63% | -5.65% | — |
| 2026-07-02 | -0.00 | $6.66 | +2.01% | +4.50% | -2.88% | +0.53% | -4.23% | — |
| 2026-06-30 | -0.00 | $6.66 | -2.03% | +1.93% | +3.88% | -3.28% | -3.64% | — |
| 2026-06-28 | -0.00 | $6.42 | +0.24% | +1.63% | +8.33% | +1.90% | -0.35% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.02 | $6.76 | -6.63% | -7.73% | -4.53% | -1.47% | -2.60% | +7.53% |
| 2026-06-16 | -0.01 | $6.84 | +0.51% | -7.70% | -8.88% | -2.52% | -2.07% | +6.71% |
| 2026-06-02 | -0.00 | $8.92 | -8.44% | -13.72% | -24.20% | -23.38% | -25.36% | -20.32% |
| 2026-05-27 | -0.00 | $9.13 | -1.11% | -3.41% | -10.53% | -27.33% | -31.79% | -17.41% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.00 | $9.15 | +2.63% | +1.68% | -3.56% | -26.51% | -33.21% | -20.28% |
| 2026-05-21 | -0.00 | $9.29 | +1.65% | +1.06% | -2.77% | -13.35% | -36.56% | -31.86% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-09-12: +20.77%
- 2026-08-16: +18.48%
- 2025-12-29: +13.10%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-06-02: -24.20%
- 2025-09-20: -13.95%
- 2026-01-16: -11.42%
How this study works
Each Binance funding rate is normalized to an eight-hour equivalent. An episode begins when that rate is below 0%. Consecutive qualifying funding intervals are grouped, and returns begin from the exact UTC date of the first qualifying interval.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.