Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20?
XRP has recorded 12 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -3.08% and 16.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 90-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -47.7% to -40.8% | 2 |
| -40.8% to -34.0% | 0 |
| -34.0% to -27.1% | 3 |
| -27.1% to -20.3% | 4 |
| -20.3% to -13.4% | 1 |
| -13.4% to -6.6% | 0 |
| -6.6% to +0.3% | 0 |
| +0.3% to +7.1% | 0 |
| +7.1% to +14.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 12 | -0.88% | -0.84% | 33.3% | 3.64% | -4.15% |
| 3 days | 12 | -0.49% | -0.84% | 41.7% | 9.62% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 12 | -3.08% | -4.85% | 16.7% | 17.63% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 12 | -6.32% | -6.28% | 33.3% | 16.39% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 12 | -8.61% | -8.01% | 25.0% | 15.86% | -26.44% |
| 90 days | 11 | -26.67% | -25.20% | 9.1% | 13.97% | -47.66% |
Historical occurrences
12 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 20.00 | $1.11 | -1.96% | -0.72% | -0.08% | +2.74% | -7.03% | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 11.00 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-03-20 | 11.00 | $1.46 | -0.81% | -3.89% | -6.01% | -9.19% | -1.47% | -18.54% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-26 | 20.00 | $1.84 | +3.64% | +4.44% | -13.19% | -21.80% | -26.30% | -22.60% |
| 2026-01-22 | 20.00 | $1.96 | -0.91% | -0.26% | -1.57% | -22.37% | -26.44% | -26.67% |
| 2026-01-01 | 20.00 | $1.84 | +2.16% | +9.62% | +17.63% | +16.39% | -5.34% | -27.25% |
| 2025-12-26 | 20.00 | $1.83 | +0.56% | +1.75% | +2.62% | +16.02% | +6.44% | -22.32% |
| 2025-12-15 | 16.00 | $1.98 | -4.15% | -5.97% | -2.93% | -5.84% | +9.56% | -28.01% |
| 2025-12-07 | 20.00 | $2.03 | +0.57% | +3.74% | -0.42% | -4.87% | +15.86% | -32.50% |
| 2025-11-13 | 15.00 | $2.39 | -2.80% | -6.53% | -11.73% | -6.80% | -15.81% | -41.09% |
| 2025-11-08 | 20.00 | $2.32 | -1.45% | +8.95% | -3.22% | -15.91% | -11.87% | -47.66% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-01-01: +17.63%
- 2025-12-26: +2.62%
- 2026-07-08: -0.08%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-01-26: -13.19%
- 2025-11-13: -11.73%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.