Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Fear & Greed Falls Below 20
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when fear & greed falls below 20, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
12 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 9 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-11-15 | $2.3182 | $2.2436 | -3.22% | 96.78 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-12-14 | $2.0316 | $2.0230 | -0.42% | 96.37 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-22 | $1.9799 | $1.9218 | -2.93% | 93.55 |
| 2025-12-26 | 2026-01-02 | $1.8322 | $1.8802 | +2.62% | 96.00 |
| 2026-01-22 | 2026-01-29 | $1.9553 | $1.9246 | -1.57% | 94.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2026-02-06 | $1.8159 | $1.2133 | -33.18% | 63.14 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-27 | $1.4557 | $1.3681 | -6.01% | 59.34 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1.2102 | $1.1369 | -6.06% | 55.75 |
| 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-15 | $1.1120 | $1.1111 | -0.08% | 55.70 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.