Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Fear & Greed Falls Below 25?
XRP has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.13% and 35.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -33.2% to -28.4% | 1 |
| -28.4% to -23.7% | 0 |
| -23.7% to -19.0% | 0 |
| -19.0% to -14.3% | 0 |
| -14.3% to -9.5% | 0 |
| -9.5% to -4.8% | 2 |
| -4.8% to -0.1% | 6 |
| -0.1% to +4.7% | 3 |
| +4.7% to +9.4% | 2 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.28% | -0.21% | 35.7% | 6.11% | -4.31% |
| 3 days | 14 | -0.55% | -0.99% | 50.0% | 5.08% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 14 | -1.13% | -2.19% | 35.7% | 9.41% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 14 | -6.78% | -7.48% | 14.3% | 8.87% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 14 | -5.24% | -5.46% | 35.7% | 29.04% | -31.35% |
| 90 days | 11 | -24.89% | -21.46% | 9.1% | 7.38% | -35.93% |
Historical occurrences
14 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 25.00 | $1.07 | -0.15% | -3.79% | -5.89% | -6.72% | +25.66% | — |
| 2026-07-31 | 25.00 | $1.08 | -1.99% | +0.32% | -4.46% | -6.81% | +29.04% | — |
| 2026-07-14 | 22.00 | $1.07 | +4.18% | +1.86% | +4.20% | -0.13% | -5.81% | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 25.00 | $1.35 | -0.39% | -2.05% | -1.07% | -19.30% | -16.72% | +7.38% |
| 2026-05-19 | 25.00 | $1.39 | -2.19% | -1.42% | -3.03% | -6.74% | -14.63% | -28.54% |
| 2026-01-30 | 16.00 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-21 | 24.00 | $1.90 | +3.04% | +1.63% | +1.48% | -16.58% | -25.03% | -24.89% |
| 2026-01-10 | 25.00 | $2.10 | +0.02% | -1.85% | -1.20% | -8.13% | -31.35% | -35.93% |
| 2025-12-13 | 23.00 | $2.01 | +0.72% | -5.52% | -5.04% | -8.27% | +3.41% | -30.36% |
| 2025-12-06 | 23.00 | $2.03 | -0.16% | +1.86% | -1.29% | -6.26% | +2.97% | -30.73% |
| 2025-11-04 | 21.00 | $2.31 | -4.31% | -4.25% | +9.41% | -6.38% | -4.68% | -30.70% |
| 2025-10-22 | 25.00 | $2.42 | -2.47% | +3.50% | +7.47% | -8.85% | -17.50% | -17.86% |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.00 | $2.33 | -1.34% | +2.72% | +2.91% | +4.82% | -4.17% | -7.95% |
| 2025-10-12 | 24.00 | $2.38 | +6.11% | +5.08% | -1.00% | +8.87% | +5.95% | -11.94% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-04: +9.41%
- 2025-10-22: +7.47%
- 2026-07-14: +4.20%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-08-04: -5.89%
- 2025-12-13: -5.04%
How this study works
Daily Fear & Greed observations satisfying the inclusive threshold are grouped into episodes, then returns are measured from the target asset's same-date price.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.