Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
XRP has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.63% and 35.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 7-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -12.5% to -7.9% | 3 |
| -7.9% to -3.4% | 3 |
| -3.4% to +1.2% | 8 |
| +1.2% to +5.8% | 4 |
| +5.8% to +10.4% | 0 |
| +10.4% to +15.0% | 1 |
| +15.0% to +19.6% | 0 |
| +19.6% to +24.1% | 0 |
| +24.1% to +28.7% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 20 | -0.85% | 0.76% | 45.0% | 14.75% | -3.62% |
| 3 days | 20 | -1.62% | 0.60% | 35.0% | 32.45% | -5.55% |
| 7 days | 20 | -1.63% | -0.06% | 35.0% | 28.71% | -12.52% |
| 14 days | 19 | -2.67% | -1.34% | 42.1% | 22.19% | -18.18% |
| 30 days | 18 | -4.72% | -6.83% | 22.2% | 3.70% | -36.53% |
| 90 days | 17 | -17.00% | -14.56% | 17.6% | 22.29% | -38.91% |
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $1.45 | -3.62% | -1.97% | -8.08% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $1.11 | +14.75% | +32.45% | +28.71% | +22.19% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $1.11 | +0.15% | -2.03% | +2.82% | -3.88% | -9.24% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $1.14 | -0.82% | +3.91% | +0.40% | -8.65% | -3.94% | +22.23% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $1.15 | +1.12% | -5.02% | +2.68% | -2.67% | -3.71% | +22.29% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $1.38 | -0.88% | +5.66% | +3.60% | +2.06% | +3.70% | -21.10% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $1.38 | -2.84% | -1.87% | -1.33% | +3.75% | +0.72% | -17.21% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $1.44 | -0.99% | -4.83% | -7.98% | -8.10% | -0.52% | -21.81% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $1.37 | +1.46% | +1.97% | +12.21% | +4.79% | -2.12% | -15.82% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $1.44 | -1.83% | -2.75% | -3.55% | +2.12% | -8.10% | -15.71% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $1.40 | -1.80% | +0.77% | -1.92% | +10.06% | -3.60% | -4.81% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $1.44 | -1.76% | -3.47% | -0.15% | -3.70% | -7.85% | -7.75% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $1.42 | +7.29% | +5.76% | +1.48% | -3.64% | +2.89% | +4.60% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $1.46 | -2.28% | -1.38% | -3.04% | -1.60% | -7.31% | -4.77% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $2.17 | -1.25% | -4.38% | -12.52% | -11.23% | -36.53% | -36.58% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $1.91 | +1.32% | -0.34% | -3.41% | +5.32% | +2.88% | -23.69% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $2.15 | +2.14% | -5.55% | -2.17% | -10.48% | -12.73% | -35.07% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $2.22 | -1.07% | -0.96% | -1.03% | -8.12% | -17.13% | -38.91% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $2.53 | +3.07% | -4.64% | -5.51% | +4.58% | -5.50% | -17.00% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $2.95 | +3.08% | +0.72% | -2.33% | -18.18% | -14.92% | -36.41% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-20: +28.71%
- 2026-03-10: +12.21%
- 2026-04-14: +3.60%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -12.52%
- 2026-09-04: -8.08%
- 2026-03-24: -7.98%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.