Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
20 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $2.9483 | $2.8796 | -2.33% | 97.67 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $2.5297 | $2.3903 | -5.51% | 92.29 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $2.2234 | $2.2005 | -1.03% | 91.34 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $1.9075 | $1.8425 | -3.41% | 88.23 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $2.1692 | $1.8975 | -12.52% | 77.18 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $1.4617 | $1.4173 | -3.04% | 74.84 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $1.4173 | $1.4383 | +1.48% | 75.94 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $1.4380 | $1.4358 | -0.15% | 75.82 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $1.4358 | $1.3847 | -3.55% | 73.13 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $1.4376 | $1.3229 | -7.98% | 67.29 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $1.3820 | $1.3636 | -1.33% | 66.40 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $1.1549 | $1.1858 | +2.68% | 68.18 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $1.1111 | $1.1424 | +2.82% | 70.10 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $1.1051 | $1.4225 | +28.71% | 90.23 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $1.4513 | $1.3340 | -8.08% | 82.93 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.