Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 5% One-Day Drop?
XRP has recorded 14 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 1.02% and 50.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 30-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -32.5% to -27.2% | 1 |
| -27.2% to -21.9% | 2 |
| -21.9% to -16.6% | 0 |
| -16.6% to -11.3% | 1 |
| -11.3% to -6.1% | 3 |
| -6.1% to -0.8% | 3 |
| -0.8% to +4.5% | 2 |
| +4.5% to +9.8% | 1 |
| +9.8% to +15.1% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 14 | -0.02% | 1.64% | 50.0% | 20.47% | -4.31% |
| 3 days | 14 | 3.77% | 1.94% | 64.3% | 18.78% | -11.91% |
| 7 days | 14 | 1.02% | -0.74% | 50.0% | 13.48% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 14 | -3.52% | -3.77% | 42.9% | 17.24% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 14 | -6.84% | -8.14% | 21.4% | 15.08% | -32.48% |
| 90 days | 14 | -26.22% | -16.08% | 21.4% | 32.26% | -39.69% |
Historical occurrences
15 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | -9.83 | $1.28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | -6.03 | $1.10 | -0.39% | +6.42% | +3.14% | +3.46% | +5.39% | +32.26% |
| 2026-06-03 | -6.58 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-02-23 | -5.94 | $1.36 | +0.16% | +5.42% | -0.13% | -0.67% | +4.35% | -0.71% |
| 2026-02-06 | -20.06 | $1.21 | +20.47% | +18.78% | +13.48% | +17.24% | +15.08% | +17.82% |
| 2026-01-30 | -5.65 | $1.82 | -4.05% | -11.91% | -33.18% | -24.18% | -23.56% | -24.52% |
| 2026-01-26 | -5.50 | $1.84 | +3.64% | +4.44% | -13.19% | -21.80% | -26.30% | -22.60% |
| 2026-01-08 | -5.98 | $2.16 | -1.81% | -3.01% | -1.05% | -9.68% | -32.48% | -36.17% |
| 2025-12-02 | -6.02 | $2.03 | +6.20% | +3.36% | +2.17% | -6.46% | -9.27% | -32.85% |
| 2025-11-21 | -5.06 | $2.00 | -2.50% | +2.34% | +10.02% | +4.87% | -3.34% | -27.92% |
| 2025-11-12 | -5.36 | $2.39 | -0.19% | -6.14% | -7.30% | -8.00% | -14.92% | -39.69% |
| 2025-11-07 | -5.65 | $2.21 | +4.88% | +6.80% | +4.92% | -9.54% | -8.08% | -31.33% |
| 2025-11-04 | -8.63 | $2.31 | -4.31% | -4.25% | +9.41% | -6.38% | -4.68% | -30.70% |
| 2025-10-11 | -15.48 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
| 2025-09-26 | -6.10 | $2.75 | +1.15% | +4.19% | +10.53% | +1.99% | -5.60% | -32.30% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-02-06: +13.48%
- 2025-09-26: +10.53%
- 2025-11-21: +10.02%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2026-01-26: -13.19%
- 2025-11-12: -7.30%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) falls to or below -5%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.