Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 5% One-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 5% one-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
15 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 12 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (3 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
1 accepted trade(s) are still within their 7-day hold and are excluded from the stats and chart above.
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-26 | 2025-10-03 | $2.7493 | $3.0389 | +10.53% | 110.53 |
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.3701 | $2.2959 | -3.13% | 107.08 |
| 2025-11-04 | 2025-11-11 | $2.3085 | $2.5258 | +9.41% | 117.16 |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-19 | $2.3904 | $2.2160 | -7.30% | 108.60 |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-28 | $1.9994 | $2.1997 | +10.02% | 119.48 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2025-12-09 | $2.0286 | $2.0727 | +2.17% | 122.08 |
| 2026-01-08 | 2026-01-15 | $2.1650 | $2.1421 | -1.05% | 120.79 |
| 2026-01-26 | 2026-02-02 | $1.8428 | $1.5997 | -13.19% | 104.86 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-13 | $1.2133 | $1.3769 | +13.48% | 118.99 |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-03-02 | $1.3640 | $1.3623 | -0.13% | 118.84 |
| 2026-06-03 | 2026-06-10 | $1.2102 | $1.1369 | -6.06% | 111.63 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.