Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After 3 Consecutive Negative Funding Intervals?
XRP has recorded 49 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -1.29% and 36.7% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: Binance USDⓈ-M Futures and CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 1-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -6.0% to -3.1% | 11 |
| -3.1% to -0.1% | 16 |
| -0.1% to +2.8% | 17 |
| +2.8% to +5.8% | 3 |
| +5.8% to +8.7% | 1 |
| +8.7% to +11.6% | 1 |
| +11.6% to +14.6% | 0 |
| +14.6% to +17.5% | 0 |
| +17.5% to +20.5% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 50 | -0.31% | -0.05% | 46.0% | 20.47% | -6.02% |
| 3 days | 50 | -0.23% | -0.44% | 46.0% | 18.78% | -25.36% |
| 7 days | 49 | -1.29% | -0.13% | 36.7% | 46.11% | -33.18% |
| 14 days | 48 | -1.20% | -0.88% | 35.4% | 39.37% | -24.18% |
| 30 days | 48 | -3.88% | -3.37% | 41.7% | 42.06% | -31.35% |
| 90 days | 41 | -20.50% | -17.75% | 12.2% | 29.21% | -36.44% |
Historical occurrences
50 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | -0.00 | $1.39 | -4.35% | -2.04% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-09-05 | -0.00 | $1.40 | +0.97% | -0.19% | -3.07% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-16 | -0.00 | $1.00 | -0.91% | -0.07% | +46.11% | +39.37% | +42.06% | — |
| 2026-07-28 | -0.02 | $1.07 | +0.27% | +1.59% | +0.89% | -5.05% | +33.55% | — |
| 2026-07-19 | -0.00 | $1.09 | +0.42% | +4.59% | +0.47% | -2.96% | -8.22% | — |
| 2026-07-13 | -0.01 | $1.09 | -1.75% | +2.51% | +1.04% | +2.44% | -5.87% | — |
| 2026-06-25 | -0.00 | $1.07 | -2.83% | -2.58% | -2.05% | +1.62% | +1.72% | — |
| 2026-06-23 | -0.00 | $1.13 | -1.67% | -7.57% | -6.48% | +1.44% | +1.20% | — |
| 2026-06-20 | -0.00 | $1.14 | +1.23% | -0.65% | -7.80% | -0.09% | -3.38% | — |
| 2026-06-18 | -0.00 | $1.19 | -3.38% | -3.09% | -9.53% | -11.38% | -8.21% | +8.22% |
| 2026-06-11 | -0.00 | $1.10 | +4.03% | +4.86% | +8.11% | -2.20% | +0.65% | +29.21% |
| 2026-06-03 | -0.02 | $1.21 | -0.86% | -9.33% | -6.06% | +0.51% | -10.19% | +13.97% |
| 2026-05-23 | -0.00 | $1.33 | +1.65% | +1.10% | -0.26% | -17.64% | -15.63% | -4.82% |
| 2026-05-17 | -0.00 | $1.41 | -0.87% | -3.85% | -4.16% | -5.19% | -12.42% | -29.33% |
| 2026-05-08 | -0.00 | $1.39 | +2.06% | +5.85% | +6.51% | -1.62% | -21.48% | -23.76% |
| 2026-04-26 | -0.00 | $1.43 | +0.41% | -3.04% | -2.24% | -0.27% | -5.56% | -23.49% |
| 2026-04-23 | -0.00 | $1.43 | +0.65% | -0.27% | -4.16% | -0.05% | -6.84% | -20.12% |
| 2026-04-21 | -0.00 | $1.43 | +0.60% | +1.00% | -1.49% | -2.30% | -4.23% | -23.04% |
| 2026-04-13 | -0.01 | $1.33 | +3.81% | +5.07% | +5.31% | +8.07% | +8.34% | -17.28% |
| 2026-04-05 | -0.01 | $1.32 | +1.51% | +4.89% | +2.84% | +8.86% | +5.68% | -13.92% |
| 2026-04-03 | -0.00 | $1.32 | -0.18% | +1.18% | +1.74% | +9.96% | +5.48% | -20.50% |
| 2026-03-26 | -0.01 | $1.42 | -3.87% | -6.25% | -5.26% | -5.65% | +0.91% | -22.07% |
| 2026-03-22 | -0.00 | $1.41 | -0.99% | +0.73% | -5.57% | -6.76% | +0.86% | -19.66% |
| 2026-03-19 | -0.01 | $1.47 | -0.72% | -3.63% | -2.93% | -8.04% | +0.73% | -17.04% |
| 2026-03-07 | -0.02 | $1.37 | +1.82% | +0.03% | +2.00% | +5.28% | -2.47% | -14.86% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-08-16: +46.11%
- 2025-12-30: +27.33%
- 2026-01-01: +17.63%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-30: -33.18%
- 2025-11-16: -12.59%
- 2026-02-03: -11.32%
How this study works
An occurrence is recorded at the 3rd consecutive negative funding interval. A longer uninterrupted run remains one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.