Transparent historical data
What Happens to XRP After a 15% Seven-Day Drop?
XRP has recorded 6 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was -2.57% and 33.3% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-10 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -7.7% to -5.7% | 1 |
| -5.7% to -3.7% | 1 |
| -3.7% to -1.8% | 1 |
| -1.8% to +0.2% | 0 |
| +0.2% to +2.2% | 0 |
| +2.2% to +4.1% | 0 |
| +4.1% to +6.1% | 1 |
| +6.1% to +8.0% | 1 |
| +8.0% to +10.0% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
| Horizon | Sample | Median | Average | Positive | Best | Worst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 days | 6 | -1.87% | -0.79% | 33.3% | 6.04% | -4.11% |
| 3 days | 6 | 1.39% | 1.20% | 50.0% | 10.01% | -7.66% |
| 7 days | 6 | -2.57% | -3.12% | 33.3% | 8.21% | -13.70% |
| 14 days | 6 | 1.89% | 0.20% | 66.7% | 5.83% | -8.13% |
| 30 days | 6 | -6.04% | -5.59% | 16.7% | 5.39% | -15.49% |
| 90 days | 6 | -11.17% | -7.13% | 16.7% | 32.26% | -26.41% |
Historical occurrences
6 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | -17.43 | $1.10 | -0.39% | +6.42% | +3.14% | +3.46% | +5.39% | +32.26% |
| 2026-02-04 | -17.80 | $1.58 | -4.11% | -7.66% | -11.21% | -5.97% | -10.95% | -12.04% |
| 2026-02-01 | -15.12 | $1.66 | -3.36% | -4.37% | -13.70% | -8.13% | -15.49% | -16.20% |
| 2025-11-05 | -15.19 | $2.21 | +6.04% | +4.95% | +8.21% | +0.32% | -5.08% | -26.41% |
| 2025-10-16 | -16.23 | $2.41 | -3.53% | -2.17% | -2.01% | +5.71% | -6.99% | -10.08% |
| 2025-10-11 | -22.09 | $2.37 | +0.58% | +10.01% | -3.13% | +5.83% | -0.40% | -10.31% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2025-11-05: +8.21%
- 2026-06-06: +3.14%
- 2025-10-16: -2.01%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-02-01: -13.70%
- 2026-02-04: -11.21%
- 2025-10-11: -3.13%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 7 day(s) falls to or below -15%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.