Historical rule simulator
Backtest: After a 15% Seven-Day Drop
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy after a 15% seven-day drop, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for XRP
6 historical signal(s) detected for XRP; 4 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (2 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-11 | 2025-10-18 | $2.3701 | $2.2959 | -3.13% | 96.87 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-11-12 | $2.2090 | $2.3904 | +8.21% | 104.83 |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-08 | $1.6552 | $1.4284 | -13.70% | 90.46 |
| 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-13 | $1.0973 | $1.1317 | +3.14% | 93.30 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.