Transparent historical data
What Happens to TRON When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day?
TRON has recorded 20 completed independent occurrences in this 7-day study. The median subsequent return was 0.97% and 75.0% of outcomes finished higher.
Source: CoinGecko. Available local data: 2025-09-11 through 2026-09-16. Compare across assets → · Backtest this rule →
Outcome summary
Distribution of 3-day outcomes
| Return range | Occurrences |
|---|---|
| -1.9% to -1.3% | 2 |
| -1.3% to -0.6% | 3 |
| -0.6% to +0.0% | 2 |
| +0.0% to +0.6% | 1 |
| +0.6% to +1.3% | 3 |
| +1.3% to +1.9% | 6 |
| +1.9% to +2.6% | 1 |
| +2.6% to +3.2% | 1 |
| +3.2% to +3.9% | 1 |
All forward horizons
Click a horizon to jump the summary above to it, or a column header to re-sort this table.
Historical occurrences
20 independent episodes. Recent events can have incomplete longer horizons.
Filters apply to the list below only — outcome statistics above use the complete historical sample.
| Date | Trigger | Price | 1d | 3d | 7d | 14d | 30d | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | 5.13 | $0.33 | +0.21% | +1.33% | +2.77% | — | — | — |
| 2026-08-20 | 7.12 | $0.33 | +0.93% | +2.97% | +0.52% | -2.78% | — | — |
| 2026-07-15 | 4.34 | $0.33 | -0.42% | -0.96% | +1.14% | -0.37% | +2.62% | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.38 | $0.32 | -0.43% | +1.56% | +1.24% | +2.19% | +4.13% | +7.02% |
| 2026-06-08 | 3.97 | $0.33 | -0.01% | -1.76% | -1.58% | +0.22% | +1.47% | +2.19% |
| 2026-04-14 | 5.41 | $0.32 | +1.06% | +2.04% | +2.66% | +1.51% | +9.04% | +3.39% |
| 2026-04-08 | 4.35 | $0.33 | +1.34% | -1.93% | -0.53% | +2.27% | +7.18% | +1.19% |
| 2026-03-24 | 4.50 | $0.31 | -0.43% | +1.30% | +4.01% | +5.96% | +7.22% | +6.47% |
| 2026-03-10 | 3.62 | $0.29 | +0.04% | +1.23% | +3.45% | +7.67% | +15.55% | +14.39% |
| 2026-03-05 | 6.54 | $0.29 | -0.66% | -0.14% | +1.47% | +6.03% | +13.61% | +15.75% |
| 2026-03-03 | 4.54 | $0.28 | -1.04% | +0.66% | +0.79% | +4.27% | +14.77% | +23.91% |
| 2026-02-26 | 5.89 | $0.29 | +0.18% | -1.14% | +0.65% | +2.13% | +8.97% | +31.47% |
| 2026-02-14 | 3.89 | $0.28 | +0.12% | +0.83% | +1.15% | +0.31% | +5.83% | +25.33% |
| 2026-02-07 | 11.94 | $0.27 | +1.57% | +3.87% | +3.04% | +4.22% | +5.72% | +27.46% |
| 2026-01-14 | 4.64 | $0.31 | -0.92% | +0.58% | -3.29% | -4.16% | -8.77% | +4.37% |
| 2025-12-20 | 3.09 | $0.28 | +0.61% | +1.53% | -0.17% | +3.19% | +13.26% | +8.41% |
| 2025-12-03 | 5.81 | $0.28 | -0.20% | +1.61% | +0.43% | -0.31% | +2.11% | +0.80% |
| 2025-11-27 | 3.66 | $0.28 | +1.32% | +1.61% | +1.45% | +1.31% | +1.08% | +2.74% |
| 2025-10-13 | 3.98 | $0.32 | -0.04% | -1.13% | -0.80% | -7.02% | -8.12% | -6.52% |
| 2025-10-02 | 4.25 | $0.34 | +0.27% | -0.43% | +0.08% | -6.58% | -13.38% | -16.32% |
Best 7-day cases
- 2026-03-24: +4.01%
- 2026-03-10: +3.45%
- 2026-02-07: +3.04%
Worst 7-day cases
- 2026-01-14: -3.29%
- 2026-06-08: -1.58%
- 2025-10-13: -0.80%
How this study works
An occurrence begins when the UTC daily reference-price return over 1 day(s) rises to or above 3%. Adjacent qualifying dates and the configured cooldown are grouped into one episode.
Forward return = ((price on T + horizon / price on T) − 1) × 100. Missing exact UTC dates are marked incomplete and excluded from aggregates. Percentiles use inclusive linear interpolation.