Historical rule simulator
Backtest: When Bitcoin Rises 3% in a Day
Simulates one mechanical rule — buy when bitcoin rises 3% in a day, hold a fixed number of days, then exit — using only this site's own historical occurrence data. Only one position is held at a time; signals that fire while already in a trade are skipped and shown below.
Rule results for TRON
20 historical signal(s) detected for TRON; 15 non-overlapping trade(s) taken at a 7-day hold (5 skipped because a position was already open).
Hypothetical growth of $100
| Entry date | Exit date | Entry price | Exit price | Trade return | Equity after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-09 | $0.3419 | $0.3421 | +0.08% | 100.08 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-20 | $0.3230 | $0.3204 | -0.80% | 99.27 |
| 2025-11-27 | 2025-12-04 | $0.2765 | $0.2805 | +1.45% | 100.71 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-12-27 | $0.2800 | $0.2795 | -0.17% | 100.54 |
| 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-21 | $0.3070 | $0.2969 | -3.29% | 97.23 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-02-14 | $0.2738 | $0.2821 | +3.04% | 100.19 |
| 2026-02-14 | 2026-02-21 | $0.2821 | $0.2854 | +1.15% | 101.34 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2026-03-05 | $0.2853 | $0.2871 | +0.65% | 102.00 |
| 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-12 | $0.2871 | $0.2913 | +1.47% | 103.50 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-31 | $0.3075 | $0.3198 | +4.01% | 107.64 |
| 2026-04-08 | 2026-04-15 | $0.3256 | $0.3239 | -0.53% | 107.07 |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-15 | $0.3267 | $0.3215 | -1.58% | 105.38 |
| 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-22 | $0.3257 | $0.3294 | +1.14% | 106.58 |
| 2026-08-20 | 2026-08-27 | $0.3343 | $0.3361 | +0.52% | 107.14 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2026-09-11 | $0.3308 | $0.3399 | +2.77% | 110.10 |
How this backtest works
Every trade uses the same independent-episode detection and forward-return data as the full study page. A trade is entered on the day a signal triggers and exited exactly 7 days later at the historical close; a new signal is ignored while a trade is still open, so the trade count below is always less than or equal to the number of raw signals. Returns compound sequentially starting from a hypothetical $100.